Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

Southerly flow for the past couple of days has advected deep
moisture across the region. In the meantime, a NE-SW oriented frontal
boundary has stalled halfway across our CWA. The combination of warm
air advection, isentropic upglide, and upper level impulses has
caused elevated showers and even a few thunderstorms to
continually stream northeast across locations generally along and
n/w of the Ohio river today. This has prompted widespread flash flood
warning in those locations, with multiple reports of street
flooding, and even a water rescue near Poplar Bluff in se MO. For
the most part this scenario will remain the same late today,
except that with time a sharp h5 low/wave will become negatively
tilted as it ejects northeast from west central Texas today to
the Great Lakes region around sunrise Sunday.

The passage of this feature just to our north and west is expected
to induce a surface low on the front that is forecast to track
northeast across our CWA tonight. The surface low will eventually
pull/push the previously stalled frontal boundary across the
remainder of our CWA late tonight.

The passage of the surface and upper trofs along the front will
greatly enhance lift, instability, and shear across the area,
especially from mid afternoon through midnight. As a result, not
only will heavy rainfall cont to be an issue tonight, but also
the potential for convection to become severe with damaging winds
and a few tornadoes, some possibly significant. The main risk will
be along and south of the Ohio river late today and this evening,
esp east of a Murray to OWB line, where lifted indices have fallen
to -2 to -4 this afternoon.

Beyond midnight tonight as the surface low and front clear the area,
and precipitation chances should decrease quickly from west to
east. On Monday models still indicate plenty of 1000-850MB post
frontal moisture and cold air advection so will be difficult to
get rid of the low clouds...and possibly even some drizzle. Temps
may actually cont to fall slowly during the day Sunday.

Well above temperatures in the early periods of the forecast drop
off to below normal readings by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

There still remains a small signal for light snow late Wednesday
Night (Christmas evening) into early Thursday. However, the signal
has been somewhat sporadic and not consistent across the numerical
model suite. For now, a small chance (less than 20% chance) of light
snow has been kept in for the aforementioned time period. The
shortwave associated with this small chance of snow shifts northeast
into the Great Lakes area with dramatically weakening lift with time.

Each of the medium range guidance packages handle the shortwaves
rotating around the Canadian vortex in slightly different location
and timing. Given the high variability and low confidence in these
model solutions, a dry forecast was kept in place.

Went with the slight cooler bias of the Canadian/ECMWF, as well as
GFS MOS guidance for temperatures and dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

Main adjustment was to attempt to simplify forecast groupings to
account for movement of surface low and frontal boundary along and
south of the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. Went from MVFR
to IFR for KCGI (expected to remain north of the surface low) with
MVFR to local IFR (with thunderstorm chances) for KPAH, KEVV,
KKOWB this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...Meffert
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
733 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
733 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
WITH SOME FLOODING LIKELY. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE GENERALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION ILLINOIS TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HICKMAN TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BE HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT ALSO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR FLOODING ARE
APPRECIATED THROUGHOUT THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

JP

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