Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Discrete supercells have developed as expected. The first bout is
generally within 3 squalls now making way across southern IL and
southeast MO. They are ahead of an advancing cold front, now
situated on the northwest doorstep of the FA. They encounter an
atmosphere destabilized thru the lower trop with strong rightward
turning hodographs. The Significant Tornado Parameter chart is
still bullseyed so no short term changes to the forecast are
necessary save for exact timing/movement of the aforementioned
features.

The front is still progged to make passage thru the entire FA by
early this evening. The Tor watch expires at 01Z, and convection
should be over by then, though an hour or two linger in the
farthest southeastern counties is not out of the question. High
gradient winds continue likewise and are being monitored closely
in case the Advisory needs even a temporary upgrade to Warning,
but for now that does not appear to be the case. There is some
concern that the last shift's abbreviated expiration at 5 pm may
not extend the Advisory long enough, as post frontal passage winds
were peaking close to 50 mph in the mixed down environment over
central MO. Will monitor this closely thru press time and may have
to extend it again but will try to avoid that flip if at all
possible.

The weather becomes tranquil post frontal passage and winds should
diminish a few hours afterwards.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected as a quasi zonal
upper flow pattern prevails for most of the period. Temps will average
several degrees below normal through the period with a reinforcing
shot of cool air coming later in the workweek into the early
weekend as height falls/upper troffiness begins to take hold.

That reinforcing shot aforementioned will accompany our next
chance of rain, which enters and departs the forecast Wednesday
and Saturday, respectively. Models remain in general agreement
that an inverted surface trough will develop over the Plains, and
a low pressure center will likely develop along the trough and
then move eastward toward us. While this system remains several
days away, the models still show the low tracking near or just
south of the Lower Ohio Valley. This would keep a cool and moist
east to northeast flow over our region for much of the time
period.

Once the system moves to our east Saturday...a north wind
flow of colder air is expected as upper height falls occur amidst
h5 troffing over the Ohio valley. Rainfall amounts are not likely
to be heavy with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Immediate term concern is svr storms affecting terminals for next
2-3 hours. Otherwise strong/gusty south-southwest winds prevail
with MVFR cigs. IFR conditions possible as storms hit. Fropa to
occur shortly thereafter, and by mid evening, winds shifting to nw
behond the front may include another hour or two of high gusts,
then subside thereafter as skies clear. Return to VFR conditions
overnight-tmrw with more tranquil post frontal airmass settling in.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
259 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 563 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE QUAD STATE. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ELEVATED
RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FORMING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANY STORMS THAT FORM OR MOVE IN WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THIS IS A RARE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. LARGE...LONG LIVED
AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING!

DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCED STREET OR LOW LAND FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF STORMS.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM FOR A
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE THE
FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40
TO 50 ARE COMMONPLACE...AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             FREDONIA                37.21N 88.06W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TORNADO          3 NW EDDYVILLE          37.11N 88.12W
11/17/2013                   LYON               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNDAO REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HAMLETSBURG        37.12N 88.42W
11/17/2013                   LIVINGSTON         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN DAMAGED AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SMITTY