Tornado Warning 69, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Will have to monitor the embedded linear segment near KPAH at 10Z
closely, but it appears that the severe weather threat for early
this morning may not pan out. We have had some gusts 40 to 50 MPH
generally associated in or close to convective elements, and this
will likely continue through at least daybreak. The current band
of convection should continue to creep eastward and should be
exiting the southeast around 15Z. The latest HRRR was holding onto
it a bit longer til nearly 18Z, so the grids will keep likely pops
through the morning in the far southeast. To the northwest of this
band, little precipitation is expected until early afternoon.

Previous runs of the HRRR and other mesoscale models had been
generating discrete convection over the Evansville Tri State
ahead of the front from midday through mid afternoon. Isolated
supercell storms with the potential for all forms of severe
weather including significant tornadoes would be possible with these
storms if they develop. The latest few HRRR runs have not been
generating the pre-frontal activity, apparently due to some minor
capping developing in the wake of this mornings activity. Will
keep an emphasis in the PoP fields over the Tri State area through
the afternoon, but it will only be good chance to low end likelies
due to the discrete nature of the storms, if they can develop.

The one thing that seems to be a given in all of the models is for
a broken line of most likely discrete supercell thunderstorms to
develop southward along the eastward advancing cold front. This
activity should enter the far northwest portions of southern
Illinois around 19Z, and then continue to develop southward as the
whole line moves east through the afternoon. All of the convection
is expected to be east of the area by 00Z. Southeast Missouri as
well as the Purchase area of west Kentucky may come through this
event unscathed, as the frontal convection moves/develops
southeastward from southern Illinois into the Lakes and Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky late this afternoon. The full gamut of
severe weather will be possible with the frontal convection,
including significant tornadoes. These frontal storms may begin to
coalesce into a line or at least linear segments before exiting
the area. This would result in more of a bowing/damaging wind
threat.

As for the Wind Advisory, only the raw NAM winds are in support,
but given observations this morning the Advisory looks good. Did
modify the winds a bit to emphasize the northern half of the
southern Illinois and the Evansville Tri State for the strongest
winds. However, guidance has trended considerably lower with the
winds behind the cold front, so decided to expire the Advisory at
23Z, instead of the original 02Z.

High pressure will build across the area tonight. Modest west
northwest winds will bring much drier and cooler air to the
region. Did not stray too far from guidance for lows tonight.
Generally favored the warm side of guidance for highs today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Not much overall change for the extended portion of the forecast.
There is good model agreement with the synoptic features
influencing the area through Thursday, then there is much
divergence. Look for high pressure to finally settle over the
area Monday evening, allowing for good radiational cooling
overnight into Tuesday morning. Definitely undercut guidance for
lows Monday night.

The surface high will shift quickly east Tuesday into Tuesday
night, allowing for weak return southeasterly flow across the
area. As the flow aloft become southwesterly heading into Wednesday,
clouds will begin to increase, and a disturbance will bring a
chance of showers to the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

The ECMWF continues to have a dominant northern stream system and
brings Arctic surface high pressure into the area beginning late
Thursday. The GFS has a stronger southern stream which effectively
holds off the Arctic airmass about 24 hours later. Both models
indicate a decent chance of showers Thursday night into Friday,
but the temperatures would be much warmer if the GFS is right.
Tremendous bust potential here. This forecast still leans a bit
toward the warmer GFS solution. Both models are now clearing the
area out by Saturday morning with somewhat modified Arctic high
pressure building over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

For the 12z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept MVFR ceilings in
place through the frontal passage at each location. For
Thunderstorms, the use of vicinity thunder was kept given the
variability and coverage of thunderstorm this after over each of
the sites. Near term changes may be required as the frontal
boundary and associated convection move through later today.
Withing 1 to 3 hours of the cold frontal passage, skies were
cleared out and winds/wind gusts were reduced dramatically.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1052 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1052 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 563 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...FROM
AROUND MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS...EASTWARD THROUGH PRINCETON AND
WINSLOW INDIANA. A MODERATE RISK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A SLIGHT RISK IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THESE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. BEHIND THESE
STORMS...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THIS IS A RARE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. LARGE...LONG LIVED
AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING!

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL STILL GUST
OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
814 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKPORT                37.88N 87.05W
11/17/2013                   SPENCER            IN   PUBLIC

            WATER TOO DEEP ALONG SEVERAL PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS
            FOR VEHCILES TO PASS THROUGH IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS.

&&

SMITTY