River Flood Warning 5, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

WITH ALREADY 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER ALL BUT FAR SE CWA
THUS FAR...AND ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER PRECIP TODAY...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL EXCEPT FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OUT IN SE
MO. JUST CANNOT TAKE MUCH...IF ANY...MORE RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THO IT HAS YET TO RAIN IN FAR SE AREAS...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BOOT. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MOST INVOLVED WITH
THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL CONT THAT REGION IN
THE WATCH ARE TODAY AS WELL.

BESIDES HYDRO ISSUES TODAY WITH RISEN STREAMS AND RIVERS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SLEET FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS THUS FAR...THO EVEN IT IS LAGGING THE SFC COLD
AIR SOMEWHAT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL ADVANCE FROM OUR
NW ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY
AROUND NOON...THEN INTO FAR WRN/NWRN KY EARLY AFTN AS THE NEXT
BAND OF PRECIP BULGES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THUS...FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET TODAY OVER
ALL EXCEPT FAR E/SE AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...ALL OF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...NOT QUITE SURE OF
THE IMPACTS THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT.
JUST DO NOT SEE MUCH ICING ON THE GROUND/ROADWAYS DUE TO WARM SFC
CONDITIONS. POSSIBLY SOME ISSUES ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS... ESP LATER
IN THE DAY AS THE SUN LOWERS. BETTER CHANCES OF GETTING SOME MINOR
ICING IN TREES AND ON POWER LINES THAT WILL COOL THE QUICKEST.

FOR NOW...DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES/ADVISORIES...AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ADDRESSING THIS POTENTIAL. IF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND MOISTURE ALL
COME TOGETHER LATER TODAY...A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON THE FLY.

DRYER BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 FOR LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY 30S DOWN NEAR THE AR/TN
BORDERS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL STATES IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AREA GRAZING THE KHOP AREA. 850 MB AND 2 METER
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...SO WHATEVER PRECIP
FALLS COULD BE A MIX.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. DEEP
LAYER DRYING IS FORECAST BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE
A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...FULL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID JANUARY.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING AND RATHER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKY AND A TEMPORARY HALT IN THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AS A VERY DEEP POLAR VORTEX BECOMES ANCHORED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION. 1000/500 MB MEAN LAYER RH PROGS FROM BOTH
ECMWF/GFS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD NORTH
WINDS. TOWARD EVENING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY MVFR DURING THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....MY
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
535 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FLOODING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL BULGE
BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. ANOTHER HALF INCH
TO INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING ISSUES.

ICING CONDITIONS MAY COAT TREES AND POWER LINES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS COULD ALSO CREATE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED ROADWAYS. THE HIGHEST ICING RISK AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY ANY FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL OR WINTER
WEATHER REPORTS TODAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
01/13/2013  M4.61 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORTED AT PADUCAH ASOS.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
801 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S JUNCTION            37.69N 88.24W
01/13/2013  M4.90 INCH       GALLATIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
849 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DIEHLSTADT              36.96N 89.43W
01/13/2013  M3.43 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

SMITTY