River Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

LOTS GOING ON WITH TORNADO WARNINGS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO WILL TRY TO BE BRIEF.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAME OVER THE OFFICE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCED NEARLY 2.5 INCH/HOUR RATES FOR AROUND HALF
AN HOUR. BLENDED HPC QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL QPF AND THEN USED STRAIGHT HPC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS GIVES 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND 2 TO 3 ELSEWHERE. WITH THE FRONT...A
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE
99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR JANUARY...AND RECENT OBSERVED
EFFICIENT RAINFALL...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE AS
IS. MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY NOT GET MUCH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT
EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING ROTATING STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PADUCAH AREA APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON THE WARM EDGE OF THE
THETA-E GRADIENT...WHERE IT CAN TAP BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
POSSIBLY SOME BAROCLINITY. TORNADOES MAY BE THE GREATER CONCERN
VERSUS DAMAGING WINDS. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH THIS UNTIL THE MAIN
RAIN BAND SPREADS THROUGH THE PENNYRILE LATER TONIGHT.

THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW A SIGNFICANT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850MB-700MB LAYER
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THEY ALSO
ARE BEGINNING TO REALIZE AS THE ECMWF HAS KNOWN FOR DAYS THAT THE
SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL MARCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FREEZING LINE IS SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI RIGHT
NOW...SO NOT SURE THAT THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION. GUT FEELING IS THAT
FREEZING RAIN IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WILL
FREEZE OR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL LEFT. MAY VERY WELL
HAVE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT CANNOT JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION IN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT ALL FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY SNOW BUT POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS WELL.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORE ROUNDS OF SNOW PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY UNTIL THE CLIPPER ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF IN THE SWRN CONUS...THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE SURGE UNDER A BROAD RIDGE JUST TO
OUR SE FOR A LITTLE MEASUREABLE RAIN IN THE SRN PENNYRILE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD /TUE/. OTHER THAN THAT...THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE AS MODEL CONSENSUS SAYS THAT
WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN FROM SWRLY TO WRLY/WNWRLY BY LATE WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. BY DAY 7 LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE BACK TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH SFC PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPORARILY SLOWED BY THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PCPN IN THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS NEW ENERGY TO OUR SW BEGINS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING...
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN...LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
AND POSSIBLY TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE
QUITE VARIABLE UNTIL FROPA. AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ANOTHER LULL IN PCPN...BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON...WITH FREEZING PCPN QUITE LIKELY PRIMARILY IN THE NWRN
HALF OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....DB
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
513 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
513 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES AND SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

A CHANGE FROM TO RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ROUGHLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...REPORTS
OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RELATED
IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

DRS

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