Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND AN UPPER WAVE DEPART THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE NORMAL
AUGUST HEAT WE ARE USED TO. STILL...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...PLACING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AS SEVERAL IMPULSES ROLL THROUGH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST...AS SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN. LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MID AUGUST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  86  72  91 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         68  90  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  94  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  84  67  89 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  85  68  90 /  40  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  95  74  98 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A POSSIBILITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
             NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF
THE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

OKZ047-051-092145-
MARSHALL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
411 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 409 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
REAGAN AND JUST WEST OF MANNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADILL...TISHOMINGO...OAKLAND...MANNSVILLE...RAVIA...MILBURN...
BROMIDE...REAGAN AND RUSSETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 9670 3415 9695 3446 9673 3441 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 270DEG 12KT 3441 9671 3420 9692