Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE FORMED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST BETTER ORGANIZATION
MAY OCCUR AS PRECIP/STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS MOST OF THE PRECIP MAY CLEAR SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTH TEXAS
BY THE LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY IMPACT WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...GREATLY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND DELAYING THE FORMATION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING RAPID WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA IN TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL UNCLEAR.
THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL FORMATION OF
ANOTHER MCS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT STILL SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE TARGET OF ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
TOMORROW...CAUSING LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS...LESS
QPF...AND LESS CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING. RIVERS MAY CONTINUE
TO FLOOD...BUT OTHERWISE THE RISK IS MUCH LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  90  71  90 /  60  30  20  10
HOBART OK         73  91  69  92 /  60  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  73  96 /  40  20  20  10
GAGE OK           68  80  65  87 /  60  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  85  68  85 /  70  30  20  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74  97 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ004>008-010>013.

TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1205 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENJAMIN TO
WICHITA FALLS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...TO ARDMORE AND COALGATE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
CELLS.

A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS FOCI
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WILL FORM INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5AM
FRIDAY.

30/AUSTIN

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