Severe Thunderstorm Warning 613, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE TSRA COMPLEX OVER KS AND FAR N OK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ESE
THIS EVENING. TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY OCCUR NEAR OTHER TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
PROBABILITIES AT ANY GIVE LOCATION WILL BE VERY LOW. THE STORM
COMPLEX MAY EXPAND SE INTO CENTRAL OK LATE TONIGHT...BUT ITS
EVOLUTION IS NOT YET CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC IN AND NEAR THE
TSRA COMPLEX TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW...EXCEPT
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR AT KPNC IN THE MORNING...AS REMNANTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGER THERE. MODELS PLACE A SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER N OK TOMORROW...BUT THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW IS QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS
OF THE STORM COMPLEX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ARE THE GREATEST FORECAST CONCERNS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
KS THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK. THROUGH 2 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK OVERALL...DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...
WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1.7 TO 2.25 IN
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS. IN RESPONSE...DECENT MUCAPES WILL
POOL ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION MERGING INTO A POTENTIAL
COMPLEX/MCS OVERNIGHT. 0-3KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KTS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LLJET...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY...WITH THE COMPLEX ADVANCING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN/NWRN
OK. IN RESPONSE... ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
CHANDLER. GIVEN THE RECENT FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION...IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT NO ONE...FOR ANY
REASON...DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROAD WAYS. ARRIVE ALIVE...TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHALLOW 500MB SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. ON ITS
HEELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN QUITE QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A SERIES OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH FRI...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE
100S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAD/JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  94 /  50  30  20  10
HOBART OK         73  97  72  98 /  30  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  93  69  94 /  50  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  91  71  92 /  90  30  20  10
DURANT OK         72  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-012-
     013-019-020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

02/23/23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

OKZ017>020-023>026-300415-
LOGAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-LINCOLN OK-KINGFISHER OK-BLAINE OK-CADDO OK-
PAYNE OK-CANADIAN OK-
1040 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN...OKLAHOMA...LINCOLN...
KINGFISHER...BLAINE...NORTHEASTERN CADDO...PAYNE AND CANADIAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1038 PM CDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF STRONG
WINDS...FOLLOWED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CUSHING TO GUTHRIE TO OKARCHE TO GEARY...MOVING SOUTH
AT 25 MPH. STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT STILLWATER...GUTHRIE...OKLAHOMA
CITY...KINGFISHER...AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 1115 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9682 3615 9663 3588 9662 3550 9663
      3536 9833 3593 9844 3616 9725 3616 9715
      3618 9714 3624 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 340DEG 21KT 3592 9677 3562 9827

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     GAGE                    36.32N 99.76W
07/29/2013  M61 MPH          ELLIS              OK   ASOS

&&

DWILLIAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 W WATONGA             35.85N 98.54W
07/29/2013  M60 MPH          BLAINE             OK   MESONET

&&

DW