River Flood Warning 25, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

.AVIATION... LARGE TSTM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD THROUGH
OK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PD. TSRA MOVING S OF NRN OK SITES EARLY IN
THE PD BUT IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SRN SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THE TSRA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL/SRN OK ON TUESDAY. OTRW...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN NRN OK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE TSRA COMPLEX OVER KS AND FAR N OK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ESE
THIS EVENING. TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY OCCUR NEAR OTHER TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
PROBABILITIES AT ANY GIVE LOCATION WILL BE VERY LOW. THE STORM
COMPLEX MAY EXPAND SE INTO CENTRAL OK LATE TONIGHT...BUT ITS
EVOLUTION IS NOT YET CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC IN AND NEAR THE
TSRA COMPLEX TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW...EXCEPT
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR AT KPNC IN THE MORNING...AS REMNANTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGER THERE. MODELS PLACE A SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER N OK TOMORROW...BUT THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW IS QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS
OF THE STORM COMPLEX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ARE THE GREATEST FORECAST CONCERNS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
KS THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK. THROUGH 2 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK OVERALL...DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...
WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1.7 TO 2.25 IN
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS. IN RESPONSE...DECENT MUCAPES WILL
POOL ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION MERGING INTO A POTENTIAL
COMPLEX/MCS OVERNIGHT. 0-3KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KTS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LLJET...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY...WITH THE COMPLEX ADVANCING EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO NRN/NWRN
OK. IN RESPONSE... ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
CHANDLER. GIVEN THE RECENT FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION...IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT NO ONE...FOR ANY
REASON...DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROAD WAYS. ARRIVE ALIVE...TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHALLOW 500MB SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. ON ITS
HEELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN QUITE QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A SERIES OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH FRI...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE
100S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAD/JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  93  72  94 /  50  30  20  10
HOBART OK         73  97  72  98 /  30  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  93  69  94 /  50  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  91  71  92 /  90  30  20  10
DURANT OK         72  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-012-
     013-019-020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

02/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1146 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY
LINE AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. EXTREME RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS WELL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS.
TRAINING OF STORMS WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROLONG STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND ALSO AID IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 5 AM...THOUGH STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED. WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY BEYOND TUESDAY
MORNING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

AUSTIN/30/II/MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

OKZ023-027>029-300630-
CADDO OK-MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-CLEVELAND OK-
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CADDO...MCCLAIN...GRADY
AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1237 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA TO TUTTLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9714 3487 9832 3537 9830 3533 9775
      3533 9769 3537 9767 3537 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 294DEG 33KT 3570 9739 3530 9786

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