Severe Thunderstorm Warning 494, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WATCH 275 IN EFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 AM. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS FOR THE
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY...BUT WILL TRIM BACK FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EAST. LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL DICTATE
CONVECTION AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERN ZONES SEEING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. ACTIVITY IN
KANSAS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER SOUTHEAST MOVING COMPLEX
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SAGS INTO NRN OKLAHOMA.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING
LOOKS TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE START OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  86  63 /  60  40  40  60
HOBART OK         94  71  85  63 /  60  40  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  73  93  68 /  40  30  20  40
GAGE OK           89  66  76  59 /  20  50  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     86  67  80  61 /  50  60  60  60
DURANT OK         90  71  90  69 /  40  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DOWN TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE AND HINTON...
SOUTHWARD TO LAWTON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BY AS EARLY AS 6 PM. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH STRONGER STORM CORES. A
SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH
A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY SUBSIDE BY 11 PM...THOUGH STORMS
MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 PM CDT TUESDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OR MORE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE AND MOST WIDESPREAD
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

MAXWELL/AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE GUTHRIE            35.84N 97.37W
06/04/2013  E60 MPH          LOGAN              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ024-025-027>029-040915-
OKLAHOMA OK-MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-CLEVELAND OK-CANADIAN OK-
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN
MCCLAIN...NORTHERN GRADY...NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 345 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA TO YUKON TO 4 MILES NORTH OF COGAR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3527 9751 3515 9808 3543 9808 3555 9775
      3572 9744 3570 9718 3539 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 327DEG 22KT 3569 9739 3550 9771 3540 9814

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CAMARGO           36.04N 99.35W
06/04/2013  M68 MPH          DEWEY              OK   MESONET

&&

EM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ021-033-034-036-040945-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-JACKSON OK-BECKHAM OK-
414 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...GREER...CENTRAL JACKSON
AND SOUTHERN BECKHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 412 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTH OF VINSON TO 3 MILES EAST OF DODSON TO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOLLIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3511 9998 3511 9954 3511 9941 3509 9937
      3462 9942 3440 9949 3457 9991 3458 10000
      3483 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 292DEG 54KT 3500 9991 3477 9995 3461 10013

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