Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL BE ONGOING TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH TIME...WITH ALL SITES VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME AFTER 00Z...AND WILL INCLUDE
A PROB GROUP FOR AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH OUR WEAK RIDGE. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE. TONIGHT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THESE CHANCES WILL
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE. LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SLIGHT WARMING TREND UNTIL A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE SEWD AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
MOIST TRANSPORT UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT DURING THIS TIME AS PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER IMPULSE
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AS LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE LATE SPRING RAINFALL PATTERN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER AREAS
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN HAS FALLEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
FARTHER SOUTH...IN DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ARID EARTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WHERE LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON. ONE BIT OF
GOOD NEWS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  87  68  86 /  40  20  50  50
HOBART OK         66  94  69  87 /  40  20  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  96  70  94 /  20  20  30  30
GAGE OK           64  91  65  78 /  60  30  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  84  67  80 /  40  30  50  50
DURANT OK         65  89  70  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DOWN TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE AND HINTON...
SOUTHWARD TO LAWTON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BY AS EARLY AS 6 PM. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH STRONGER STORM CORES. A
SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH
A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY SUBSIDE BY 11 PM...THOUGH STORMS
MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 PM CDT TUESDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OR MORE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE AND MOST WIDESPREAD
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

MAXWELL/AUSTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ004-040630-
HARPER OK-
104 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
     HARPER

AT 104 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUFFALO...LAVERNE AND
SELMAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3675 9939 3662 9990 3675 9997 3701 9962
      3701 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 241DEG 20KT 3675 9980

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
118 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ011-017-040645-
BLAINE OK-MAJOR OK-
118 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN BLAINE AND EASTERN MAJOR

AT 118 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF LONGDALE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAIRVIEW...HOMESTEAD...
ISABELLA...LONGDALE...OKEENE...ORIENTA AND RINGWOOD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3647 9818 3617 9820 3616 9821 3614 9821
      3609 9821 3608 9820 3608 9822 3614 9864
      3616 9864 3616 9875 3632 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 258DEG 16KT 3624 9863

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ004-005-010-011-040715-
HARPER OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
132 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HARPER...CENTRAL WOODWARD...MAJOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WOODS

AT 132 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODWARD TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CHESTER...CLEO SPRINGS...
FAIRVIEW...MOORELAND...ORIENTA...ORION...QUINLAN AND WOODWARD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3648 9853 3646 9853 3646 9846 3642 9828
      3616 9853 3616 9871 3637 9944 3672 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 248DEG 15KT 3660 9950 3632 9851

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

OKZ011-012-017-018-040730-
BLAINE OK-GARFIELD OK-KINGFISHER OK-MAJOR OK-
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     KINGFISHER

AT 144 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMES TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KINGFISHER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...AMES...DOVER...HENNESSEY...
KINGFISHER...LACEY...LOYAL AND MENO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3641 9818 3600 9767 3577 9788 3610 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 212DEG 26KT 3617 9826 3584 9785