Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OK EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF PNC THROUGH OUN.
ANOTHER LINE WAS LOCATED EAST OF WWR TO WEST OF CSM. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPOS TO REFLECT THESE LINES...WITH A MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KT. AFTER THE TSRA DIMINISHES LATE
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 20 KT
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. AN AWW WAS ISSUED
FOR OKC...BUT HAS JUST EXPIRED AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE
DRY LINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...IN THE
WARM SECTOR...A SCATTERED LINE OF SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. THERE REMAINS
A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS WRN OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL OK. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR WRN/NWRN OK AS THE DRY
LINE SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR THE OK/TX
BORDER. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE METRO
AFTER 6 PM...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SEVERE HAIL...AND WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE OKC
METRO REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH
AXIS ORIENTED FROM SRN ALBERTA THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. WITH THE
PRIMARY SFC LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS SRN KS OVERNIGHT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING. AS
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE LATER THIS EVENING AND
ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS WRN OK...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MERGE
INTO A LINE AS THEY APPROACH THE CENTRAL OK/OKC METRO. THIS WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING FOR THE METRO.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS THIS AREA OF STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THU AFTN. THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING THE LARGER TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OFF SERN CO...WITH THE DRY LINE MAKING A SURGE
EASTWARD...THIS TIME INTO WRN/N CENTRAL OK. AGREEMENT FROM SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE IT SOMEWHERE JUST SHY OF AN ENID TO
WEATHERFORD TO CROWELL TX LINE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR NWRN/N CENTRAL
OK SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH BACKING SFC WINDS NEAR THE SFC
LOW THROUGH 00Z FRI...0-1 AND 0-3KM HELICITIES WILL INCREASE.
OVERALL...WITH THE SURGING DRY LINE FOR FOCUSED LIFT AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES LOOKS DECENT THU AFTN ACROSS N
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK AND FAR WRN N TX BEFORE THE DRY LINE
RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK AND THE
BEST SURGE IN THE DRY LINE...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS N CENTRAL OK
THROUGH W CENTRAL OK. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE OKC
METRO...THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY STALL JUST WEST OF THE
METRO...NEAR EL RENO. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE DRY
LINE AND EASTWARD...WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THROUGH THE EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO
A LINE...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS E/NE ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIDES SEWRD AROUND THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH AS IT FINALLY BEGINS
TO TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SFC LOW TAKING A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THIS WILL BRING THE
WARM FRONT INTO PLAY ACROSS NRN AND NWRN OK...DROPPING SWRD
THROUGH THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO. WHILE OUT WEST...THE
DRY LINE MAKES ANOTHER PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WRN N TX AND S/SWRN
OK. IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT/DRY LINE COMBINATION...
SFC WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... RESULTING
IN INCREASED O-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES THROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND TORNADOES FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MID-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS PERSISTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OK.

FOR THE WEEKEND...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST EARLY...EXITING TO
THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

KURTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  83  70  83 /  50  30  20  40
HOBART OK         68  93  70  97 /  40  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  92  72  94 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           63  90  59  89 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  84  71  81 /  60  40  30  50
DURANT OK         70  86  71  87 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

16/03/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
515 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
WHILE A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO
STILLWATER... TO SHAWNEE... TO SULPHUR AND ARDMORE... INCLUDING
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...WICHITA
FALLS...LAWTON...WOODWARD...ENID...WEATHERFORD...AND ALTUS AREAS.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH...
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
BRIEF TORNADOES...

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE ALLOWED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

TWO MAIN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...ONE NEAR THE
DRYLINE...AND ANOTHER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA.  THE EASTERN LINE HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE WESTERN LINE MAY WEAKEN.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS THIS EVENING.

LONG LIVED OR LARGE TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THEN RETURN
TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM THURSDAY.

CMS/MBS

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