Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE
DRY LINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...IN THE
WARM SECTOR...A SCATTERED LINE OF SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. THERE REMAINS
A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS WRN OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL OK. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR WRN/NWRN OK AS THE DRY
LINE SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR THE OK/TX
BORDER. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE METRO
AFTER 6 PM...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SEVERE HAIL...AND WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE OKC
METRO REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH
AXIS ORIENTED FROM SRN ALBERTA THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. WITH THE
PRIMARY SFC LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS SRN KS OVERNIGHT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING. AS
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE LATER THIS EVENING AND
ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS WRN OK...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MERGE
INTO A LINE AS THEY APPROACH THE CENTRAL OK/OKC METRO. THIS WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING FOR THE METRO.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE AS THIS AREA OF STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THU AFTN. THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING THE LARGER TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OFF SERN CO...WITH THE DRY LINE MAKING A SURGE
EASTWARD...THIS TIME INTO WRN/N CENTRAL OK. AGREEMENT FROM SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE IT SOMEWHERE JUST SHY OF AN ENID TO
WEATHERFORD TO CROWELL TX LINE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR NWRN/N CENTRAL
OK SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH BACKING SFC WINDS NEAR THE SFC
LOW THROUGH 00Z FRI...0-1 AND 0-3KM HELICITIES WILL INCREASE.
OVERALL...WITH THE SURGING DRY LINE FOR FOCUSED LIFT AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES LOOKS DECENT THU AFTN ACROSS N
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK AND FAR WRN N TX BEFORE THE DRY LINE
RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK AND THE
BEST SURGE IN THE DRY LINE...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS N CENTRAL OK
THROUGH W CENTRAL OK. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE OKC
METRO...THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY STALL JUST WEST OF THE
METRO...NEAR EL RENO. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE DRY
LINE AND EASTWARD...WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THROUGH THE EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO
A LINE...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS E/NE ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIDES SEWRD AROUND THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH AS IT FINALLY BEGINS
TO TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SFC LOW TAKING A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THIS WILL BRING THE
WARM FRONT INTO PLAY ACROSS NRN AND NWRN OK...DROPPING SWRD
THROUGH THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO. WHILE OUT WEST...THE
DRY LINE MAKES ANOTHER PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WRN N TX AND S/SWRN
OK. IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT/DRY LINE COMBINATION...
SFC WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... RESULTING
IN INCREASED O-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES THROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND TORNADOES FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MID-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS PERSISTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OK.

FOR THE WEEKEND...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST EARLY...EXITING TO
THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

KURTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  83  70  83 /  50  30  20  40
HOBART OK         68  93  70  97 /  40  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  92  72  94 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           63  90  59  89 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  84  71  81 /  60  40  30  50
DURANT OK         70  86  71  87 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1149 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
WHILE A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO
STILLWATER... TO SHAWNEE... TO SULPHUR AND ARDMORE... INCLUDING
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 2 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS SETTING UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...A DRYLINE WILL
MOVE VERY QUICKLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES
OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE
DRYLINE. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH LARGE
HAIL.... DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST...CLOSER TO I-35. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL ALSO HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE OF STORMS
THIS EVENING. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL...NORTH-
CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5
AM THURSDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

OKZ033>036-TXZ083-292030-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-KIOWA OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
259 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARMON...CENTRAL
GREER...WESTERN KIOWA...JACKSON AND CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE
FORMING 5 MILES EAST OF DUKE AND JUST NORTH OF MANGUM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3505 9959 3489 9903 3438 9944 3439 9947
      3434 9947 3419 9959 3425 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 206DEG 45KT 3439 9962

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

OKZ021-022-034>037-TXZ085-292100-
GREER OK-KIOWA OK-WASHITA OK-TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-BECKHAM OK-
WILBARGER TX-
327 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GREER...KIOWA...
WASHITA...CENTRAL TILLMAN...JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN BECKHAM AND
NORTHERN WILBARGER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 325 PM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WERE LOCATED
ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAINLY BETWEEN CORDELL...HOBART...
ALTUS...AND FREDERICK.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AROUND 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3544 9940 3538 9869 3485 9881 3483 9883
      3476 9883 3428 9893 3439 9948 3441 9951
      3443 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 191DEG 34KT 3500 9897

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