Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION... TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OK HAVE NOW MOVED E OF
TAF SITES. TSTMS  KPNC MAY STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF THE FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO STALL LATER TONIGHT IN NRN AND WRN OK. TSTM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY AFTN AND EVENING EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DRYLINE
CONT TO WORK TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
THIS AFTN. 18Z SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED.
HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT RELATIVELY QUIET.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A TREND OF BEING A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC FRONT INTO OR SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR TO NEAR I-44 BY MONDAY AFTN. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW
THE DRYINE ACTUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAY WITH SEVERE STORMS. FRONT WILL
THEN TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BRINGING A BIT
QUIETER WEATHER TO OKLAHOMA.

SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER AFTER
MONDAY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW. AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  87  63  81 /  50  40  60  30
HOBART OK         63  92  60  83 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  66  85 /  20  40  40  20
GAGE OK           53  82  53  80 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  83  60  78 /  60  40  60  20
DURANT OK         71  88  69  83 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036-037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

09/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...
TO ENID...TO EL RENO...TO LAWTON...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO SEMINOLE. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT...TO TALOGA...TO GRANDFIELD...TO SEYMOUR.

TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 2 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 70 MPH
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
MEDFORD AND PONCA CITY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WARM...HUMID...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING
IS FORECAST TO GREATLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...PLUS
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD PUSH A FEW UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TORNADO          2 NW PRAGUE             35.51N 96.72W
05/19/2013                   LINCOLN            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
717 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW SHAWNEE           35.38N 96.94W
05/19/2013  M61 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       OK   MESONET

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
717 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

OKZ007-008-200100-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
717 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND CENTRAL
KAY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRAMAN TO LAMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3700 9688 3659 9733 3660 9770 3700 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 233DEG 48KT 3688 9726 3666 9752

KURTZ

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