Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING BENEATH UPPER LOW
DRIFTING NEWD. MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL EXTEND THROUGH CENTRAL OK
INTO N TX AND WILL LEAVE WESTERN SITES DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PARTS OF OF THE FA THURSDAY. DESPITE THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND... WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP JUST WEST OR IN THE
FA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO AND REMAIN IN THE FA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  81  65  84 /  60  10  10  10
HOBART OK         62  85  65  94 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  67  95 /  50  10  10  10
GAGE OK           58  86  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  80  64  81 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         62  78  67  82 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1158 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
4 PM TO 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH...ALTHOUGH
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AS A LARGE WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN JUST
WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
STORMS MAY FORM JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE IN A EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IMPACTING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR A DRYLINE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY.

GREATER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             2 S VASHTI              33.52N 98.05W
05/15/2013  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW

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