Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE STORM SCALE MODELS PAINT A CONSISTENT PICTURE OF
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY...
IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE SHORT-TERM MODELS
THAN THE MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX... ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA... THUS PRECIP
CHANCES WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR
THE AREA... ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  79  56  73 /  40  30  50  20
HOBART OK         59  80  55  74 /  50  20  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  87  57  77 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           55  75  53  71 /  40  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     60  77  57  72 /  60  40  30  20
DURANT OK         60  79  60  79 /  20  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM
CUSHING...TO DAVIS...TO MARIETTA. THIS INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...4 PM TO 11 PM

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A WARM AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE ALIGNED NEAR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE-OKLAHOMA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO FORM BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 PM...MOST LIKELY IN FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. BY 4 PM...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE BECOME SEVERE. WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO RISK...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN ONE FOURTH OF OKLAHOMA...INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY WHEN A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT PASS. THE SEVERE
RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
BY 5 AM THURSDAY...OR AS NEEDED FOR UPDATES.

CMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>