Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. MODEL DATA VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TODAY AND HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN/TSRA. WE WILL INCLUDE
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALLOW CIGS AND VIS
TO IMPROVE THERE. WILL INCLUDE MAINLY MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE. WILL
ONLY INCLUDE TSRA IN TAF WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE/IMPACTS WOULD
RESIDE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WRN NORTH TEXAS TOWARD AND
AFTER 23Z. VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  55  78  51 /  40  50  20  30
HOBART OK         70  54  79  53 /  20  60  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  56  83  56 /  20  50  20  30
GAGE OK           72  46  78  46 /  30  40  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     72  52  75  48 /  40  40  10  20
DURANT OK         73  56  78  55 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/99/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO HOBART TO VERNON
TEXAS TO SEYMOUR.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. A
MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT SURFACE-BASED STORMS
FROM FORMING THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAP IS THEN
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSION WILL AGAIN LIMIT
THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAR 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

OKZ023-027-291415-
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-
851 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CADDO AND
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRACEMONT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3528 9838 3528 9790 3502 9794 3511 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 276DEG 31KT 3519 9830

KURTZ

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