Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL PARTIALLY TRANSITION AS WEAK
NW-SE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
TOMORROW...AN UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG TH MS RIVER. THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION COVERAGE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THIS TAF PD. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AFT 12Z ON SUNDAY. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPED AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED THANKS TO VERTICAL MIXING OF
DRY LAYERS AND SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID AFTERNOON READINGS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S PLATEAU.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ANY MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE. A SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IN/IL AND NORTH MO WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH. MID TN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL PEAK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS AGREE WITH GOOD MOISTURE POOLING
INCLUDING PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. ALSO...MOS POPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WE WILL GO WITH "LIKELY" (60 PERCENT) WORDING BOTH
SUNDAY PM AND MONDAY...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE INDICATING "LIKELY"...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A TOTAL
WASHOUT...THERE WILL BE RAIN FREE PERIODS. WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING...EXPECT SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL TAPER DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AN ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BU THURSDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH POPS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO JUST INCLUDING 20 POPS FOR NOW.

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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
502 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ008-009-029-210130-
MACON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SUMNER AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BLEDSOE CREEK STATE PARK...
CASTALIAN SPRINGS...BETHPAGE...HARTSVILLE AND WESTMORELAND.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3645 8601 3634 8622 3635 8623 3632 8627
      3634 8627 3635 8628 3634 8630 3632 8630
      3631 8632 3645 8647 3664 8619

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ059-060-210200-
MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAURY AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE SPRING HILL AND THOMPSONS
STATION.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3577 8712 3604 8682 3580 8661 3579 8662
      3579 8666 3577 8666 3576 8668 3570 8677
      3570 8681 3568 8682 3561 8693

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ009-029-210200-
MACON-TROUSDALE-
817 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES...

AT 814 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE LAFAYETTE AND RED BOILING SPRINGS.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3663 8581 3644 8582 3642 8595 3643 8598
      3642 8598 3642 8611 3664 8621 3664 8620

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ026-027-059-210215-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILLIAMSON-
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE NATCHEZ TRACE AT HIGHWAY 96...
PEGRAM...BELLEVUE...OAK HILL...FOREST HILLS AND BELLE MEADE.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3636 8690 3622 8660 3590 8698 3604 8719

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ027-059-062-210230-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE FRANKLIN...TRIUNE...BRENTWOOD...
NOLENSVILLE...ANTIOCH...LA VERGNE...SMYRNA AND PERCY PRIEST LAKE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3621 8658 3614 8655 3613 8653 3611 8653
      3604 8642 3603 8639 3601 8638 3602 8637
      3596 8627 3575 8681 3590 8698 3622 8659

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ008-027-028-210300-
DAVIDSON-SUMNER-WILSON-
913 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...SUMNER AND WILSON
COUNTIES...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MADISON...HERMITAGE...OLD
HICKORY...LAKEWOOD...HENDERSONVILLE...MOUNT JULIET AND GALLATIN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AND ALSO...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3648 8651 3628 8628 3615 8660 3628 8678

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