Alert archive / Tennessee / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Nashville, TN

July 20, 2013Davidson County, Sumner County, Wilson County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this flash flood warning at Jul 20, 2013, 9:21 PM CDT for Davidson County, Sumner County, Wilson County, Tennessee. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2013, 9:21 PM CDT (02:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2013, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Davidson County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1884 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1463 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

225 
WGUS54 KOHX 210221
FFWOHX
TNC037-165-189-210530-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FF.W.0025.130721T0221Z-130721T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
921 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 919 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE      
  WARNED AREA. RADAR INIDCTAES THAT AS MUCH AS 2 1/2 INCHES OF       
  RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL   
  AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  NASHVILLE...BELLE MEADE...BELLEVUE...FOREST HILLS...
  GOODLETTSVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...HERMITAGE...LAKEWOOD...MADISON...
  MOUNT JULIET...OAK HILL AND OLD HICKORY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8644 3607 8670 3606 8689 3605 8691
      3605 8693 3599 8704 3604 8705 3610 8703
      3613 8700 3620 8699 3631 8687 3636 8660

$$

21

1 follow-up statement

540 
WGUS74 KOHX 210430
FFSOHX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNC037-165-189-210443-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130721T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUMNER TN-WILSON TN-DAVIDSON TN-
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE WARNED AREA. 
THUS...WITH NO CURRENT FLOODING OCCURRING...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 3621 8644 3607 8670 3606 8689 3605 8691
      3605 8693 3599 8704 3604 8705 3610 8703
      3613 8700 3620 8699 3631 8687 3636 8660

$$

21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 20, 5:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 5:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL PARTIALLY TRANSITION AS WEAK
NW-SE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
TOMORROW...AN UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG TH MS RIVER. THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION COVERAGE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THIS TAF PD. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AFT 12Z ON SUNDAY. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPED AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED THANKS TO VERTICAL MIXING OF
DRY LAYERS AND SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID AFTERNOON READINGS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S PLATEAU.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ANY MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE. A SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IN/IL AND NORTH MO WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH. MID TN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL PEAK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS AGREE WITH GOOD MOISTURE POOLING
INCLUDING PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. ALSO...MOS POPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WE WILL GO WITH "LIKELY" (60 PERCENT) WORDING BOTH
SUNDAY PM AND MONDAY...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE INDICATING "LIKELY"...THIS DOES NOT MEAN A TOTAL
WASHOUT...THERE WILL BE RAIN FREE PERIODS. WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING...EXPECT SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL TAPER DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AN ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BU THURSDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH POPS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO JUST INCLUDING 20 POPS FOR NOW.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 5:02 AM CDT, 16 hours 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
502 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

27

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 7:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ008-009-029-210130-
MACON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SUMNER AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BLEDSOE CREEK STATE PARK...
CASTALIAN SPRINGS...BETHPAGE...HARTSVILLE AND WESTMORELAND.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3645 8601 3634 8622 3635 8623 3632 8627
      3634 8627 3635 8628 3634 8630 3632 8630
      3631 8632 3645 8647 3664 8619

21

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 8:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ059-060-210200-
MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAURY AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE SPRING HILL AND THOMPSONS
STATION.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3577 8712 3604 8682 3580 8661 3579 8662
      3579 8666 3577 8666 3576 8668 3570 8677
      3570 8681 3568 8682 3561 8693

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 8:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ009-029-210200-
MACON-TROUSDALE-
817 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES...

AT 814 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE LAFAYETTE AND RED BOILING SPRINGS.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3663 8581 3644 8582 3642 8595 3643 8598
      3642 8598 3642 8611 3664 8621 3664 8620

21

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 8:25 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ026-027-059-210215-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILLIAMSON-
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE NATCHEZ TRACE AT HIGHWAY 96...
PEGRAM...BELLEVUE...OAK HILL...FOREST HILLS AND BELLE MEADE.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3636 8690 3622 8660 3590 8698 3604 8719

21

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 8:51 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ027-059-062-210230-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-
851 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE FRANKLIN...TRIUNE...BRENTWOOD...
NOLENSVILLE...ANTIOCH...LA VERGNE...SMYRNA AND PERCY PRIEST LAKE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3621 8658 3614 8655 3613 8653 3611 8653
      3604 8642 3603 8639 3601 8638 3602 8637
      3596 8627 3575 8681 3590 8698 3622 8659

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 9:13 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TNZ008-027-028-210300-
DAVIDSON-SUMNER-WILSON-
913 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...SUMNER AND WILSON
COUNTIES...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MADISON...HERMITAGE...OLD
HICKORY...LAKEWOOD...HENDERSONVILLE...MOUNT JULIET AND GALLATIN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AND ALSO...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3648 8651 3628 8628 3615 8660 3628 8678

21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 7:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Trousdale	42 min
Jul 20, 8:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Williamson	47 min
Jul 20, 8:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Macon	43 min
Jul 20, 8:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson	50 min
Jul 20, 8:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Williamson	39 min
Jul 20, 9:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Davidson	3 hr
Jul 20, 9:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Sumner	47 min
Jul 20, 9:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Wilson	41 min
Jul 20, 10:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Smith	48 min
Jul 21, 10:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Pickett	2 hr
Jul 21, 12:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Hickman	35 min
Jul 21, 12:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Putnam	37 min
Jul 21, 1:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Dickson	38 min
Jul 21, 1:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Marshall	27 min
Jul 21, 1:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cheatham	25 min
Jul 21, 1:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Robertson	28 min
Jul 21, 2:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson	48 min
Jul 21, 2:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Lawrence	25 min
Jul 21, 2:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	DeKalb	36 min
Jul 21, 2:56 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Lawrence	2 hr
Jul 21, 3:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OHX	Lawrence	3 hr
Jul 21, 3:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Giles	26 min
Jul 21, 5:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Montgomery, Stewart	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.