Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1003 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THROUGH WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR TENNESSEE RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR
TUPELO. HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME. 50 KNOT...850 MILLIBAR JET
CONTINUES TO PUNCH INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MESO SCALE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT LINE SEGMENT OF STRONGER STORMS LIFTING
NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. BELIEVE ONCE THIS LOW SLIPS FARTHER
NORTHEAST WE'LL START TO SEE SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE FRONT
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO WESTERN AREAS. I HAVE TWEAKED
TEMPS SINCE THE COLDER AIR IS SLOWER COMING IN THAN WHAT WE HAD IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUNGE OVER WESTERN AREAS
AS WE GET CLOSER TO NOON.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH INVERTED TROUGH DRAPED DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 15Z. 55 KNOT 850
MILLIBAR JET PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS ENHANCED
EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING
NOTED. ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY A FEW MINUTES AGO FOR
THIS AREA FOR 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS. STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH. WITH WET GROUND SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE EASIER
UPROOTED.

HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY FOR THE MID STATE WITH FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINS
WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S IN WEST
TENNESSEE BEHIND THE FRONT.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS MUCH RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
AS WELL AS PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
852 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ022-024-056-057-131530-
BENTON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-PERRY-
852 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS AND
PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 843 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARSONS...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...WHICH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SHALLOW ROOTED TREES. IN FACT...RECENT
RAINS...WHICH HAVE SATURATED THE GROUNDS...WILL MAKE SOME TREES MORE
VULNERABLE TO BEING UPROOTED.

LAT...LON 3624 8789 3624 8785 3602 8755 3599 8753
      3599 8750 3558 8802 3565 8804 3569 8802
      3572 8804 3576 8799 3581 8798 3581 8802
      3584 8804 3584 8807 3588 8808

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1007 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ006-007-025-026-131700-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
1007 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DICKSON...MONTGOMERY
AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 958 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...COVERING PARTS
OF EASTERN MONTGOMERY...WESTERN ROBERTSON...NORTHWESTERN CHEATHAM...
AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF DICKSON COUNTY.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SHALLOW ROOTED TREES. IN FACT...RECENT
RAINS...WHICH HAVE SATURATED THE GROUNDS...WILL MAKE SOME TREES MORE
VULNERABLE TO BEING UPROOTED. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO DIME SIZE.

LAT...LON 3664 8677 3597 8727 3600 8754 3620 8755
      3624 8753 3625 8753 3625 8752 3632 8751
      3663 8717

19