River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
128 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
BULK OF THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN HALF THE MID
STATE WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. THE RIVERS
HAVE RESPONDED QUITE WELL BY CARRYING THE RUNOFF DURING THE DAY
WITH THE HARPETH AT KINGSTON SPRING BEING THE ONLY RIVER AT TIME
OF THIS WRITING THAT HAS JUMPED TO THE 14 FOOT LEVEL WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THE HARPETH IS
CONTINUING TO RISE AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 20 FOOT LEVEL
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SYNOPICALLY THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF BOWLING GREEN
DOWN BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. THE
FRONT HAS A SERIES OF WAVES THAT WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT IN THE
MID STATE A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGHT. EVENTUALLY THE
FRONT WILL WORK EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE PLATEAU AROUND 00Z BASED
ON THE LATEST RUC RUN. MUCH OF THE RAIN IS POST FRONTAL. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE MID STATE
AND THEN LOWER THE POPS FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND I HAVE PLACE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
OVER THE NORTH HALF DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WAVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS BASICALLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A SYSTEM DOES
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY BUT THINK IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH NOT TO BRING PRECIP TO THE MID STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      30  37  28  44 /  70  30  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    24  33  24  41 /  70  30  20  20
CROSSVILLE     36  43  33  45 / 100  70  70  70
COLUMBIA       31  38  29  44 /  70  50  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   32  38  30  44 / 100  70  40  40
WAVERLY        25  35  25  40 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS MUCH RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
AS WELL AS PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     HAIL             LOBELVILLE              35.75N  87.80W
01/13/2013  E0.70 INCH       PERRY              TN   FACEBOOK

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PERRY COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300001

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1148 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW DICKSON            36.02N  87.45W
01/13/2013                   DICKSON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE WEST FORK OF THE PINEY RIVER HAS RISEN OUT OF ITS
            BANKS AND INTO LOW LYING FIELDS A FEW MILES SOUTHWEST OF
            DICKSON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300002

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTERVILLE             35.79N  87.45W
01/13/2013                   HICKMAN            TN   FACEBOOK

            HWY 100 IN CENTERVILLE REPORTED TO HAVE WATER OVER IT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300003

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ008-009-029-131900-
MACON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
1223 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SUMNER AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 1215 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE...TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3663 8585 3662 8583 3644 8587 3642 8596
      3643 8598 3642 8598 3635 8632 3664 8613

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
116 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ007-008-026>028-057-059-060-132000-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-HICKMAN-MAURY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
116 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...HICKMAN...
MAURY...ROBERTSON...SUMNER...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NORTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTY...ACROSS WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY NEAR FAIRVIEW...TO
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY...NEAR SHADY GROVE. THE BAND WAS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WHILE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LAT...LON 3662 8655 3631 8645 3579 8694 3567 8736
      3611 8706

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

TNZ008-009-027>029-062-132015-
DAVIDSON-MACON-RUTHERFORD-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WILSON-
140 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...MACON...RUTHERFORD...
SUMNER...TROUSDALE AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 135 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OAK HILL...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ALREADY MOIST
SOILS AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN FALLING TREES ON PROPERTY AND
ROADWAYS.

SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3661 8582 3592 8654 3597 8662 3597 8664
      3610 8688 3665 8641

TB12