Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE A PART OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO PIVOT
INTO THE PLAINS REGION...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS LIFTS
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. MAIN ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD MAKE THIS CYCLE
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING CONTINUOUS
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY GIVEN TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FIRST 9 HOURS...THEN USED PROB30 GROUPS FROM 06-18Z. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. CEILING HEIGHTS
OVERALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME INTERMITTENT IFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER BELOW THE
PLATTE RIVER AND FOR THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER. ELSEWHERE SEVERAL RIVERS
ARE NEAR BANKFULL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
BRINGS WATER LEVELS TO NEAR RECORD VALUES. THE RECORD FOR THE LITTLE
SIOUX RIVER NEAR TURIN OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 19TH, 1971 WHEN THE
RIVER REACHED 27.4 FEET. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE RIVER TO
REACH 26.5 FEET. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE LEVEL REACHED IN JUNE OF
1996. IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH
OF IOWA. HEAVY RAINS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE LED TO SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

FOBERT/KERN/PEARSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-301130-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-PLATTE-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-301130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-THURSTON-
CUMING-BURT-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WATER
OVER ROADS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ079-090-NEZ065>068-078-088>093-301130-
MILLS-FREMONT-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. DUE
TO RECENT RAINS...WATER OVER ROADS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
124 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ090-NEZ067-068-090-091-291900-
FREMONT IA-CASS NE-JOHNSON NE-NEMAHA NE-OTOE NE-
124 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND
CENTRAL OTOE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COOK...OR 32 MILES EAST OF BEATRICE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEBRASKA CITY...TECUMSEH...COOK...TALMAGE...UNION...NEHAWKA...
DUNBAR...BROCK AND LORTON VILLAGE.

LAT...LON 4043 9632 4088 9598 4072 9569 4033 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 215DEG 41KT 4045 9617

KERN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
143 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ069-079-NEZ053-067-291915-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-MILLS IA-CASS NE-SARPY NE-
143 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLATTSMOUTH...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...OFFUTT AFB...PLATTSMOUTH...TREYNOR...
UNDERWOOD...PACIFIC JUNCTION AND MCCLELLAND.

LAT...LON 4093 9592 4105 9609 4119 9595 4119 9592
      4121 9593 4124 9591 4148 9567 4130 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 221DEG 43KT 4105 9595

KERN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W
05/29/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
343 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W
05/29/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED. WATER ONE TO TWO FEET DEEP IN
            PLACES.

&&

PEARSON