Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE A PART OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO PIVOT
INTO THE PLAINS REGION...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS LIFTS
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. MAIN ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD MAKE THIS CYCLE
A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING CONTINUOUS
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY GIVEN TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FIRST 9 HOURS...THEN USED PROB30 GROUPS FROM 06-18Z. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. CEILING HEIGHTS
OVERALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME INTERMITTENT IFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER BELOW THE
PLATTE RIVER AND FOR THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER. ELSEWHERE SEVERAL RIVERS
ARE NEAR BANKFULL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
BRINGS WATER LEVELS TO NEAR RECORD VALUES. THE RECORD FOR THE LITTLE
SIOUX RIVER NEAR TURIN OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 19TH, 1971 WHEN THE
RIVER REACHED 27.4 FEET. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE RIVER TO
REACH 26.5 FEET. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE LEVEL REACHED IN JUNE OF
1996. IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH
OF IOWA. HEAVY RAINS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE LED TO SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

FOBERT/KERN/PEARSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-301130-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-PLATTE-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-301130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-THURSTON-
CUMING-BURT-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WATER
OVER ROADS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ079-090-NEZ065>068-078-088>093-301130-
MILLS-FREMONT-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. DUE
TO RECENT RAINS...WATER OVER ROADS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W
05/29/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
343 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W
05/29/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED. WATER ONE TO TWO FEET DEEP IN
            PLACES.

&&

PEARSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
530 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ065-066-078-292300-
SEWARD NE-SALINE NE-LANCASTER NE-
530 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEWARD...NORTHEASTERN
SALINE AND NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORCHESTER...OR 22 MILES WEST OF LINCOLN...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEWARD...MILFORD...DORCHESTER...GARLAND...PLEASANT DALE...BEE AND
MALCOLM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 9723 4105 9715 4105 9710 4103 9679
      4060 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 192DEG 47KT 4070 9710

KERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
531 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND GST     WESTERN                 40.39N 97.20W
05/29/2013  E55 MPH          SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
537 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             3 N RISING CITY         41.24N 97.30W
05/29/2013  E0.88 INCH       BUTLER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PEARSON