Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SCNTRL NEBR COULD DEVELOP/MOVE TOWARD LNK
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THUS AN EARLIER TEMPO GROUP OF TSTM
MENTION THERE COMPARED TO OMAHA OR NORFOLK. THE STORMS WERE
ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ALONG THE NEBR/KS BORDER. A CU
FIELD EAST OF THERE TO SOUTH OF OMAHA WAS MAINLY CAPPED...BUT IF
CAP BREAKS THERE....CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT INTO OMAHA EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD ROLL EAST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OR LOWER COULD AGAIN FORM BEHIND
DEPARTING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BY
AFTERNOON.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS MOD RISK INVOF THE SRN CWA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TURNING PRIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR
STORMS. FOCUS FOR STRONG/SVR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE A WARM FRONT
PROGGED TO SET UP ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERLAPPING PARAMETERS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
60KT...EFFECTIVE SRH PUSHING 400 J/KG...0-1KM ML EHI 10...MUCAPE
4500 J/KG...ML LCL AOB 1200 FT ALL POINT TWD RATHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SUPPORTING TOR DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS THEN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS AND EVENTUALLY TAKE A SEWD TRACK PER MEAN STORM MOTION PROGS.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK AGAIN PLACES CWA IN THE SLGT RISK IN ANTICIPATION
FOR NEXT ROUND OF SVR STORMS TUES AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG A SFC BNDRY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE TOR THREAT WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER..THREAT WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TOR AND SHOULD BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER N-CNTRL KS.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE
FLOW TRANSITION A DEEP ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
ALASKAN GULF TO THE SRN TIP OF TX. THURS/FRI..A POTENT VORT MAX
LIFTING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW FORMING
OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROMPTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHEN AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CONDITIONS LOOK
DRY THEN SAT THRU MON WHEN AS MORE STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
445 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-281145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
445 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SEWARD TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO SHENANDOAH LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR OR NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WHILE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OR DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANY OF
THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER KANSAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INTERACT WITH THE ACTIVITY BRINGING THE TORNADO
THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. DUE TO FAVORABLE
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS...ANY OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
THIS WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL FAVOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF NEBRASKA CITY TO
LINCOLN TO SEWARD LINE.

CHERMOK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

NEZ088-280330-
JEFFERSON NE-
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

AT 1003 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUBBELL...OR 35 MILES NORTH OF
CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAIRBURY...DILLER...JANSEN...ENDICOTT...REYNOLDS...STEELE CITY AND
HARBINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 9737 4021 9692 4001 9692 4000 9732
      4001 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 262DEG 27KT 4007 9750

NIETFELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1007 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SWANTON                 40.38N 97.08W
05/27/2013  M1.80 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FRIEND                  40.65N 97.28W
05/27/2013  M1.39 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WESTERN                 40.39N 97.20W
05/27/2013  M2.65 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N WILBER              40.55N 96.96W
05/27/2013  M2.00 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DE WITT                 40.40N 96.92W
05/27/2013  M2.78 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1009 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW WILBER             40.43N 97.03W
05/27/2013  M2.00 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1013 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S TOBIAS              40.36N 97.34W
05/27/2013                   SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN, WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

PEARSON