Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
ATTEMPT TO HONE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE SEEN EXTENSIVE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE NOCTURNAL CLOUD DEBRIS. DESTABILIZATION IS ENSUING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION POINT OF
ND/SD/WC MN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN AS A MIDLEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES TO FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING
LIKELY. THE STORM MODE STILL APPEARS SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE...GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT IN WI COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A COOL AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

STUBBORN UPPER LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL
SWING AROUND ON THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS...ENDING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIDGING FOR FRIDAY...BUT DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF CANADA WILL REMAIN...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRY IF THE UPPER TROUGH
STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE SIGNS OF THIS IN
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF...AND IF THAT OCCURS..MN/WI WOULD
BE BETWEEN UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGING...WITH MAYBE
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WNW. EITHER WAY POPS OF
20-30 PERCENT SHOULD BE FINE. NW UPPER FLOW IS SUCH THAT TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
MN TAF AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z...AND EXPAND ACROSS WI SITES AFTER
01Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL WATCH
CLOSELY THROUGH THE PRIME TIME TO AMEND AS NEEDED FOR STRONGER
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL WI IF
SKIES CLEAR IN TIME.

KMSP...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP BY
22Z...WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
THEN AND 02Z AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOUTH WINDS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 02Z THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM...
AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             SW MORRIS               45.58N 95.91W
08/06/2013  M2.50 INCH       STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             6 WSW GILCHRIST         45.42N 95.43W
08/06/2013  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
446 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             6 NW GILCHRIST          45.52N 95.40W
08/06/2013  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
501 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             3 N SWIFT FALLS         45.45N 95.44W
08/06/2013  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             EVANSVILLE              46.01N 95.68W
08/06/2013  M1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ044-045-062300-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
534 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

AT 529 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORA...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ONAMIA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WARMAN.
  QUAMBA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 9305 4597 9308 4597 9313 4588 9314
      4587 9314 4592 9354 4610 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 285DEG 30KT 4598 9338

JLT