Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
ATTEMPT TO HONE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE SEEN EXTENSIVE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE NOCTURNAL CLOUD DEBRIS. DESTABILIZATION IS ENSUING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION POINT OF
ND/SD/WC MN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN AS A MIDLEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES TO FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING
LIKELY. THE STORM MODE STILL APPEARS SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE...GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT IN WI COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A COOL AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

STUBBORN UPPER LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL
SWING AROUND ON THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS...ENDING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIDGING FOR FRIDAY...BUT DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF CANADA WILL REMAIN...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATING DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEEKEND MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRY IF THE UPPER TROUGH
STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE SIGNS OF THIS IN
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF...AND IF THAT OCCURS..MN/WI WOULD
BE BETWEEN UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGING...WITH MAYBE
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WNW. EITHER WAY POPS OF
20-30 PERCENT SHOULD BE FINE. NW UPPER FLOW IS SUCH THAT TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
MN TAF AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z...AND EXPAND ACROSS WI SITES AFTER
01Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL WATCH
CLOSELY THROUGH THE PRIME TIME TO AMEND AS NEEDED FOR STRONGER
STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL WI IF
SKIES CLEAR IN TIME.

KMSP...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP BY
22Z...WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
THEN AND 02Z AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOUTH WINDS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 02Z THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM...
AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ042-043-061700-
MORRISON-TODD-
1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER EASTERN TODD COUNTY INTO WESTERN
MORRISON COUNTY THROUGH NOON CDT...

AT 1055 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LONG PRAIRIE...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAUK CENTRE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LITTLE FALLS.
  BURTRUM.
  SWANVILLE.
  FLENSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 9413 4584 9418 4586 9483 4611 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 275DEG 30KT 4601 9473

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ043>045-061800-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EASTERN MORRISON COUNTY ACROSS KANABEC
AND MILLE LACS COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

AT 1151 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTH OF FOLEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MORRILL.
  BOCK.
  OGILVIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 9332 4575 9339 4579 9376 4582 9377
      4582 9405 4583 9411 4600 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 280DEG 27KT 4590 9396

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ047-062115-
STEVENS-
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO STEVENS COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

AT 325 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHEATON...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLLIS.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN STEVENS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MORRIS...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4571 9626 4575 9626 4576 9625 4577 9620
      4572 9576 4564 9577 4564 9578 4548 9583
      4556 9625 4570 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 281DEG 35KT 4571 9655