Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

A VERY COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION AND DIFFERING PRECIP TYPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW PRODUCER OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A TREMENDOUS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH LOWER 80S BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS SERN IA. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH UP AND OVER THE
REINFORCING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD SECTOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP AN IDEAL HEAVY WINTRY PRECIP SCENARIO SPANNING MULTIPLE
PERIODS.

THE PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND THE LULL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND IS
ORGANIZING AS A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WRN WI DURING THE
LATE EVENING. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SRN MN AND WRN WI. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH SHOULD LARGELY
PREVENT PRECIP FROM REACHING AREAS SUCH AS ALEXANDRIA AND LAKE MILLE
LACS. THUS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NEW ULM/
LAKEVILLE/MENOMONIE ON SOUTHWARD DUE TO PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER
AROUND 700 MB. BY THE TIME ONE REACHES MSP/RWF/RNH...THE WARM
LAYER IS MUCH LESS INFLUENTIAL AND IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SNOW
TONIGHT...PERHAPS MIXED AT TIMES WITH A LITTLE SLEET THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL PROFILE TOUCHES 0C OR 1C. EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...THE WARM LAYER IS COMPLETELY ABSENT AND EXPECTING
ALL SNOW THERE. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL FALL WHERE A
MIX IS EXPECTED...NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ONE
ELEMENT BUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF NEW
ULM...LAKEVILLE...AND MENOMONIE. IN ADDITION TO SOME SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS...COULD ALSO SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE SOUTH OF
MANKATO...ALBEIT MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THUS...EXPANDED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH TO THE IOWA BORDER AND ACROSS INTO WI
LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER LULL WILL FOLLOW THAT PRECIPITATION ROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SLOW MOVING 500 MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CLOSES OFF AND EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME. AS THE
SURFACE LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE FORM OF A VERY WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN THE TROWAL AND AN EXCELLENT CROSS HAIRS
SIGNATURE AT 500 MB WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE AND WELL ESTABLISHED
MDT-HVY SNOW BAND WHICH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA /INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THIS
BAND WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED IF THUNDERSNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AS
CURRENTLY APPEARS POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THE LONG DURATION EVENT AND A COUPLE LULLS...FELT IT WAS
EASIER FOR EVERYONE AND LESS CONFUSING JUST TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH
A WINTER STORM WARNING. HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BORDERING WFO DLH AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE WINTER STORM WILL BE AT ITS HEIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE JET STREAK CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
WESTERN SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS UPSTREAM OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A DEEPENING H500
LOW...WITH +10M/HR HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CAN ALSO BE
VIEW BY THE H500-300 QVECT CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED OVER
THE MN/WI BORDER AT 12Z THURSDAY. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 310 THETA_E
SURFACE WITH RESPECT TO PRESSURE REVEALS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROWAL ORIENTED ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CROSS
SECTIONS THROUGH THIS REGION IDENTIFY A DEEP AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH EXPLAINS THE HIGH OMEGA VALUES SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LONG STORY SHORT...EXPECTING A HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09.12 NAM SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO MAY
SEE SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...BUT IT HAS ALSO DONE THE BEST WITH THE
PREVIOUS INVERTED TROUGH EVENTS THIS YEAR...SO CANT RULE ITS
SOLUTION OUT. EVEN THE ECMWF 09.12 HAS 0.9 INCHES OF QPF WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE MEAN TOTAL
QPF FROM THE MSP SREF PLUMES. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND
10/12:1...BUT WILL ALSO SEE COMPACTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
THEREFORE THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED BY THE
CASUAL OBSERVER...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCH
AMOUNTS FROM REDWOOD FALLS MN TO THE METRO UP THROUGH RICE LAKE WI
BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...H850 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
RAGGED NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15F BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. LATE SATURDAY ANOTHER POWERFUL
JET WILL CRASH ONSHORE AND DEVELOP ANOTHER LEE SIDE CYCLONE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT THE SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR SUNDAY...AND
COLD WEATHER RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIP BRING DIFFERING TYPES OF WX AND CIGS/VSBYS.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THE SNOW TYPE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF RWF TO
STC TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH RAIN AND SOME SLEET MIXED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER
ROUND THIS EVENING AND PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW AT MSP/RNH
BETWEEN 04-06Z AND EAU AROUND 10Z. ANOTHER LULL IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR...BUT AS THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE A BIT.

KMSP...FIRST ROUND IS JUST ABOUT DONE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ALSO MIXING IN INITIALLY. MAINLY VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE NEXT ROUND TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...IFR WITH SN. NE WIND 15G25 KTS.
THU...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH SN. NE WIND 15G12 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS. -SN ENDING IN MORNING. WINDS NW WIND 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-050.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
     054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
     059>063-066>070.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
519 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064-065-073-101030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
519 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A MONTEVIDEO TO LITTLE FALLS LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL OBSERVE A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW
AND OR ICE PELLETS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WILL VARY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.

MINOR RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ052-053-060>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-101030-
ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-
CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-
BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-
RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
519 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTH MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRANSITION
TO A MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH RANGE...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AMOUNTS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND GOODHUE COUNTY.

MINOR RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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