River Flood Warning 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

936 
WGUS83 KMPX 101554
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...
 
  EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK  AFFECTING EAU CLAIRE COUNTY 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN..
  CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND AFFECTING BUFFALO AND PEPIN COUNTIES 

.THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED ON AN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION OF 
1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES WILL PRIMARILY
BE RAIN, FOLLOWED BY A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THIS EVENING BEFORE 
TURNING TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THE MAJORITY 
OF THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW OR SLEET, WE DO NOT 
EXPECT IT TO HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. FORECAST 
HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL CAUSE SNOW 
MELTING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AND FLOW DURING 
THIS TIMEFRAME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

WIC035-112154-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T0925Z/
/FLCW3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130411T1200Z.130412T1525Z.NO/
1054 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK .
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* FOR FALL CREEK , NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
  RIVER LEVEL INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR FALL 
  CREEK IN THE NEAR TERM FUTURE DUE TO EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS.
  A REPAIR OF THE RIVER GAUGE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 13.5 
  FEET TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...ROADS NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...SOME PARK AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS BECOME 
  INNUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...RIVER CURRENTS BECOME DANGEROUS FOR 
  RECREATIONAL USERS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.8 FEET
  ON JUN 1 2004.

$$

WIC011-091-112154-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0004.130411T1600Z-130414T0000Z/
/DURW3.1.ER.130411T1600Z.130412T0600Z.130413T0600Z.NO/
1054 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND.
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE BASEMENTS OF WAREHOUSES ALONG THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...THE NORTH SHORE HIGHWAY BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.8 FEET
  ON APR 13 2011.

$$
PJP/DFC

506 
WGUS83 KMPX 111440
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
940 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...
 
  EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK  AFFECTING EAU CLAIRE COUNTY 
  CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND AFFECTING BUFFALO AND PEPIN COUNTIES 

.OVERVIEW...
THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED ON AN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION OF A
QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION OF AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SINCE THE MAJORITY 
OF THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW OR SLEET, WE DO NOT 
EXPECT IT TO HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. 
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL 
CAUSE SNOW MELTING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RIVER LEVELS AND 
FLOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

WIC035-122040-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T0500Z/
/FLCW3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130411T1800Z.130412T1100Z.NO/
940 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK .
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* FOR FALL CREEK , NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
  RIVER LEVEL INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR FALL 
  CREEK IN THE NEAR TERM FUTURE DUE TO EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS.
  A REPAIR OF THE RIVER GAUGE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED. THE FORECAST IS STARTING 
  AT THE MAXIMUM VALUE OF 12.4 FEET...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...SOME PARK AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS BECOME 
  INNUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...RIVER CURRENTS BECOME DANGEROUS FOR 
  RECREATIONAL USERS.

$$

WIC011-091-122040-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0004.130411T1800Z-130413T0900Z/
/DURW3.1.ER.130411T1800Z.130412T0600Z.130412T1500Z.NO/
940 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE BASEMENTS OF WAREHOUSES ALONG THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...THE NORTH SHORE HIGHWAY BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.8 FEET
  ON APR 13 2011.

$$
CARLYON

305 
WGUS83 KMPX 120114
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
814 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...
 
  CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND AFFECTING BUFFALO AND PEPIN COUNTIES 
  EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK  AFFECTING EAU CLAIRE COUNTY 

.OVERVIEW...
RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED THE 
CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIR RIVER TO RISE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

WIC035-130500-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T0500Z/
/FLCW3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.130412T0600Z.130412T1100Z.NO/
814 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAU CLAIRE RIVER NEAR FALL CREEK .
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* FOR FALL CREEK , NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY FALLING FROM
  NEAR 11.5...AND GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE MID DAY THRUSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...SOME PARK AND AGRICULTUREAL LANDS BECOME 
  INNUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...RIVER CURRENTS BECOME DANGEROUS FOR 
  RECREATIONAL USERS.

$$

WIC011-091-130714-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T0832Z/
/DURW3.1.ER.130412T0336Z.130412T0600Z.130412T1432Z.NO/
814 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE BASEMENTS OF WAREHOUSES ALONG THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...THE NORTH SHORE HIGHWAY BEGINS TO FLOOD.

$$

JRB

170 
WGUS83 KMPX 120401
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND
AFFECTING BUFFALO AND PEPIN COUNTIES.

.OVERVIEW...
THE RIVER HAS GONE BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

WIC011-091-120431-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T0832Z/
/DURW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CHIPPEWA RIVER AT DURAND.
* AT 10:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 11.6 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE BASEMENTS OF WAREHOUSES ALONG THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...THE NORTH SHORE HIGHWAY BEGINS TO FLOOD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM WED APR 10 2013

SFC LOW LOCATED OVER NRN MO THIS MORNING...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO THE NW TO NEAR ABERDEEN. FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NRN ILLINOIS.
FOR THE INVERTED TROUGH...THE WEST END IF IT WILL STAY ANCHORED NEAR
THE ABERDEEN AREA...WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
MN/IA BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS INTO NRN IL. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION NORTH OF
THE TROUGH FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC AND DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIP FROM OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WORKS EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOVE UP INTO SW/SC MN BY
THIS AFTERNOON PER THE HRRR/RAP AND HOPWRF AS NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE WRN NEB UPPER LOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOW...THIS WAVE
WILL BE FIGHTING PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...WITH
PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN A
MADISON...TWIN CITIES...EAU CLAIRE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SC/EC MN INTO WRN WI AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ALOFT TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE
WAKE OF THE MORNING WAVE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON...THOSE
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SW MN WHERE WARM NOSE ALOFT LOOKS TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. A COUPLE
SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE SW BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIPITATION WAVES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE MPX AREA. DURING THE
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT AND STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING FROM IA
INTO CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY MORNING. TO GO ALONG WITH THIS...H85
ERLY JET IN COLD CONVEYOR BELT NORTH OF THE SFC LOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WI TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60 KT RANGE. THE DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE
THE SLANTWISE AND EVEN UPRIGHT INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE THE GENERATION
OF INTENSE BANDING...WHILE THAT H85 JET WILL CREATE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. GARCIA METHOD WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS ON THE 300-305K SFC WOULD SUPPORT 8-12 INCH AMOUNTS IN 12
HOURS BASED ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE...ADD IN THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND YOU HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THESE STRONG FORCING SIGNALS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CURRENT GRIDS DEPICTING 8-12 INCHES FROM EC
MN BACK INTO SW MN AND 6-9 INCHES OVER WRN WI.

MAIN QUESTION MARKS FOR TONIGHT ARE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH WHAT HAS
BEEN STUBBORN DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND HOW MUCH OF A MIX WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE SE CWA AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES BY. FOR THE DRY
AIR...THINK EXTENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS WITH FORCING
TONIGHT WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN NWRD EXTENT OF WARNING TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS /6 INCHES/ TO
KEEP 3 WRN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH. ADDED BENTON OVER TO KANABEC
COUNTIES INTO THE WARNING AFTER COLLAB WITH DULUTH..ALONG WITH STORM
TOTALS IN THOSE COUNTIES IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE.

LOOKING AT THE MIX POTENTIAL...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES THE SE
CWA...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ICE GENERATION LAYER GOING
DRY...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ALL LIQUID SCENARIO IN AND
NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FZRA
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH DOWN TOWARD ALBERT
LEA/OWATONNA...THEN EAST ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE MIX
EXPECTED...WILL STICK WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE ICING THREAT DOWN AROUND ALBERT LEA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM WED APR 10 2013

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS THE FA. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN BOTH POSITION THE
SFC CYCLONE OVER NE IA/SOUTHERN WI. VERTICALLY STACKED 500MB/700MB
SYSTEM INDICATED JUST UPSTREAM OVER NW IOWA BY BOTH MODELS AS WELL.
DRY SLOT NOTED ON GFS40 295K SFC ANAL WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
WI AND NE MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS LINING UP OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. SFC AND 850MB
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER SW AND WEST
CENTRAL MN AS THIS OCCURS. COULD EASILY BE ANOTHER QUICK HALF TO
ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH THE AFTN. SLOW
EXIT OF 50H LOW INTO EASTERN WI BY FRI/12Z COULD GENERATE ANOTHER
QUICK INCH OF MOISTURE TO MAINLY WEST CENTRAL WI COUNTIES THU NIGHT.
MID LEVEL LOW FINALLY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING. PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF FA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PACIFIC NW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. A
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
EASTERN MT TO CENTRAL NE BY SUN/12Z. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
SAME WILL BE CATALYST FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS POINTING
TO POSSIBLY AN ALL SNOW SITUATION DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD
...BUT WENT WITH A MIXED LIQUID/SOLID PCPN TYPE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER
DAKOTAS AND FA. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE CWA AS ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
CONTINUING TO POINT TO AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF THE
FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL NEGATE ANY
CHANCE FOR ANY 50 DEGREE DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER VFR LULL THIS MORNING AS WE AWAIT ARRIVAL
OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE WITH
12Z TAFS WAS TO INCREASE CIG HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
DELAY ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVEN TONIGHT. BASED ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ON BLEND OF HIRES
WRF MODELS...WHICH WERE ALL IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT. WITH DRY AIR...
IN PLACE...MAY NOT BE UNTIL CLOSE THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
BEFORE SNOW FINALLY REACHES AXN. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE INTERMITTENT
ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER 3Z...MAIN BAND OF HEAVY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BEGIN ITS TREK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR
EXPECTED AT ALL BUT EAU AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. AT EAU...BOTH
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
RESULT IN A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING /AFTER
THE EAU VALID TAF PERIOD/. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT
RWF/MSP/STC...WHERE AT LEAST 8-10 INCH TOTALS ARE LOOKING LIKELY.
GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE VARIATION IN WIND
DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS ERN AREAS AS SFC
LOW MOVES TO THE IL/WI BORDER REGION.

KMSP...TWO BIG ISSUES THIS PERIOD AT MSP WILL BE UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR +SN DURING THE MORNING PUSH ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN VFR CONDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ONSET IS LOW...AS -SN MAY NOT
REACH THE FIELD UNTIL CLOSER TO 3Z...BUT HAVE TAF TRENDED IN THE
LATER DIRECTION. 9Z-16Z THU LOOKS TO BE THE WINDOW FOR SEEING +SN
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VIS
DROPPING TO 1/2SM OR LESS DURING THIS WINDOW. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
9-13Z...BUT TIMING CAN BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS BAND
MOVING IN. COULD EVEN SEE A LITTLE TSSN AGAIN IN THIS WINDOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. AS FOR WINDS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN
020 AND 060 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MAKING IT TOUGH TO SETTLE ON
A RUNWAY CONFIG. WITH MOST GUIDANCE FAVORING WINDS THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 040 AND 060...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 050...BUT THE CROSS
WIND WILL DEFINITELY BE PROBLEMATIC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH SN. NE WIND 15G25 KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS. -SN ENDING IN MORNING. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE -RA/-SN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS S AROUND 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ044-045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>043.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
506 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

MNZ044-045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111015-
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-
SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-
GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
506 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT.
PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES OR TUNE
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAKE MINOR RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>043-111015-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-
506 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL
HAZARDS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL
HAZARDS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAKE MINOR RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
802 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     SNOW             HAMBURG                 44.73N 93.96W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CARVER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             CHIPPEWA FALLS          44.93N 91.39W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CHIPPEWA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
815 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     SNOW             WACONIA                 44.85N 93.79W
04/10/2013  M1.4 INCH        CARVER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             3 NE BURNSVILLE         44.80N 93.24W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             3 ESE EDEN PRAIRIE      44.83N 93.40W
04/10/2013  M1.9 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH 44.83N 93.04W
04/10/2013  M1.9 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             4 SE FRONTENAC          44.46N 92.28W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        GOODHUE            MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             2 SE LAKE ELMO          44.97N 92.88W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        WASHINGTON         MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 SSW LONSDALE          44.46N 93.44W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 SSW MONTEVIDEO        44.94N 95.73W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             3 ENE MONTGOMERY        44.46N 93.52W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             5 ESE NEW PRAGUE        44.52N 93.48W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
817 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     SNOW             ELK MOUND               44.88N 91.69W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        DUNN               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
829 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     SNOW             1 W COTTAGE GROVE       44.82N 92.95W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
830 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     SNOW             SPRINGFIELD             44.24N 94.98W
04/09/2013  M1.0 INCH        BROWN              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDER ALSO REPORTED.

1230 AM     SNOW             GAYLORD                 44.55N 94.22W
04/10/2013  E3.0 INCH        SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS IN DITCH

1230 AM     SNOW             LAFAYETTE               44.45N 94.39W
04/10/2013  E2.0 INCH        NICOLLET           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS IN DITCH

1230 AM     SNOW             GLENCOE                 44.77N 94.15W
04/10/2013  E1.0 INCH        MCLEOD             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1230 AM     SNOW             INVER GROVE HEIGHTS     44.83N 93.06W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1230 AM     SNOW             NEW ULM                 44.31N 94.46W
04/10/2013  E1.0 INCH        BROWN              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1235 AM     SNOW             LE SUEUR                44.46N 93.91W
04/10/2013  E1.0 INCH        LE SUEUR           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS IN DITCH

0100 AM     SNOW             LAKEVILLE               44.68N 93.24W
04/10/2013  M1.2 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0219 AM     SNOW             GLENCOE                 44.77N 94.15W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0219 AM     SNOW             HASTINGS                44.73N 92.85W
04/10/2013  M2.2 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 AM     SNOW             EAU CLAIRE              44.82N 91.49W
04/10/2013  M2.7 INCH        EAU CLAIRE         WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WQOW

0526 AM     SNOW             2 NW CHASKA             44.84N 93.63W
04/10/2013  M2.1 INCH        CARVER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0526 AM     SNOW             WINTHROP                44.54N 94.36W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0526 AM     SNOW             WINTHROP                44.54N 94.36W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        SIBLEY             MN   PUBLIC

0542 AM     SNOW             REDWOOD FALLS           44.54N 95.11W
04/10/2013  M4.0 INCH        REDWOOD            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0556 AM     SNOW             1 SSW JORDAN            44.66N 93.64W
04/10/2013  M2.1 INCH        SCOTT              MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0630 AM     SNOW             JIM FALLS               45.05N 91.27W
04/10/2013  M1.6 INCH        CHIPPEWA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0630 AM     SNOW             2 NNW RED WING          44.61N 92.61W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        GOODHUE            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            L+D3

0630 AM     SNOW             CREDIT RIVER            44.68N 93.37W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0704 AM     SNOW             CHANHASSEN              44.86N 93.56W
04/10/2013  M2.1 INCH        CARVER             MN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            CORRECTED FOR TOTAL.

0704 AM     SNOW             MONTEVIDEO              44.95N 95.72W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0704 AM     SNOW             5 SSE MINNEAPOLIS       44.89N 93.23W
04/10/2013  M1.4 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MSP AIRPORT...CORRECTED FOR TOTAL.

0704 AM     SNOW             MENOMONIE               44.89N 91.91W
04/10/2013  M2.5 INCH        DUNN               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 AM     SNOW             2 SW CANNON FALLS       44.50N 92.93W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        GOODHUE            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0726 AM     SNOW             RICHFIELD               44.88N 93.28W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 AM     SNOW             1 SW MENOMONIE          44.87N 91.94W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        DUNN               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             HAMBURG                 44.73N 93.96W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CARVER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             1 W COTTAGE GROVE       44.82N 92.95W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0802 AM     SNOW             ELK MOUND               44.88N 91.69W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        DUNN               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             5 ESE NEW PRAGUE        44.52N 93.48W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             3 ENE MONTGOMERY        44.46N 93.52W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 SSW MONTEVIDEO        44.94N 95.73W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 SSW LONSDALE          44.46N 93.44W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        RICE               MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             2 SE LAKE ELMO          44.97N 92.88W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        WASHINGTON         MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             4 SE FRONTENAC          44.46N 92.28W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        GOODHUE            MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH 44.83N 93.04W
04/10/2013  M1.9 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             3 ESE EDEN PRAIRIE      44.83N 93.40W
04/10/2013  M1.9 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             3 NE BURNSVILLE         44.80N 93.24W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             WACONIA                 44.85N 93.79W
04/10/2013  M1.4 INCH        CARVER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             HASTINGS                44.73N 92.85W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        DAKOTA             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             BLOOMER                 45.10N 91.49W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0802 AM     SNOW             3 N BOYCEVILLE          45.09N 92.04W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        DUNN               WI   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 W WATERTOWN           44.96N 93.87W
04/10/2013  E1.0 INCH        CARVER             MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             2 NNW SPRINGFIELD       44.26N 94.99W
04/10/2013  M2.2 INCH        BROWN              MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 WNW RICHFIELD         44.88N 93.30W
04/10/2013  M1.0 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             1 ENE RICHFIELD         44.88N 93.26W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             2 W PRIOR LAKE          44.73N 93.47W
04/10/2013  M2.0 INCH        SCOTT              MN   COCORAHS

0802 AM     SNOW             CHIPPEWA FALLS          44.93N 91.39W
04/10/2013  M1.5 INCH        CHIPPEWA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
847 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     SNOW             3 NW ELLSWORTH          44.77N 92.52W
04/10/2013  M3.0 INCH        PIERCE             WI   COCORAHS

0846 AM     SNOW             1 SW EAU CLAIRE         44.81N 91.51W
04/10/2013  M3.0 INCH        EAU CLAIRE         WI   COCORAHS

&&

CARLYON