Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE IS A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN ND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND NORTHEAST NE. LOOKING A BIT
HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WE FIND HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDING INTO
WESTERN MN AND A NICE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO NO
SURPRISE WE HAVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS
MN EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PLACE
AND STRONG FORCING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD AT LEAST GET
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN HALF
SEEING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS A MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE LINES. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WE THINK MOST OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL WI OR EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 13-14Z. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FAVORS MORE REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

THERE IS NICE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR AND COLLOCATED PV ANOMALY
IN EASTERN MT AND WY EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFTING E-NE WITH TIME.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT
UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. EVEN BEHIND THE INITIAL MCS MOVING ACROSS IA/MN
THIS MORNING THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTION BUBBLING UP IN
EASTERN NE. THIS CAN LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE LLJ. WE MENTION
THIS BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH THE 925-850MB WINDS SUBSIDE LATE THIS
MORNING...THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY NEVER GOES AWAY TODAY AND
SIMPLY SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH. THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION AND HOW SOON /AND WHERE/ WILL WE GET CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE IF WE DO CLEAR AND MANAGE TO GET
EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WE COULD GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE BIG REASON IS THE NICE INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT COMES ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE MORNING CONVECTION IS GOING TO REALLY MESS UP THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND THROW OUT OUT SOME BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OF SW SFC-850MB FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
HODOGRAPH WILL YIELD GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. PROBABLY A LITTLE
TOO SLOW IN CLEARING OUR AREA OF POPS THIS EVENING...THERE SHOULD
BE NICE MID LEVEL DRYING AND SINKING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

BESIDES THE 23.00Z GFS...WHICH HAS A LARGE QPF BULLS EYE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY FOR A
WHOLE 18 HOURS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ONCE AGAIN THE LLJ
INCREASES AND PREDOMINATELY SW FLOW REGIME WOULD ARGUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SO...WE WONT BE ABLE TO SHAKE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AND WE SEE A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WE COULD ALSO
HAVE A COUPLE VERY WARM DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN FIRING OVER SRN MN...N OF A LINGERING
STNRY FNT OVER NR IA. THIS FNT WILL TRANSITION TO A WMFNT AND
SLOWLY LIFT N OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL STORMS TRAVERSE THE FNT FROM
W TO E. KRWF THE FIRST TO BE AFFECTED...THEN ACTIVITY WILL
STEADILY SPREAD E. CONDS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE ALSO SEEN REPORTS
OF A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG...ESP IF RAIN WASHES IT OUT. CONDS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING OCCURS WITH INCRG S WINDS. VFR WILL
THEN PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE DAY FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE WRN MN
INTO WRN WI SEE OCNL MVFR CONDS WITH LINGERING SHWRS.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF TSTMS. BEST TIMING PUTS
TSTMS INTO THE MSP AREA 07Z-10Z BUT COULD LAST SLIGHTLY LONGER.
MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CONDS
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THRU THE DAY WHILE SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP E OF THE
MSP TERMINAL. AFTER RELATIVELY LIGHT E WINDS THIS MRNG...SE WINDS
INCRS TO ARND 15 KT THRU THIS AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 25MPH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MON NIGHT...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
WED...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS S SHIFT TO NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041-042-
     047>049-051-054>062-064>069-073>076-082-083-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
240830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
324 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND THERE IS ONCE AGAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNZ064-065-073-230615-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AT 1228 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF TRACY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MILROY.
  LUCAN.
  SEAFORTH.
  BELVIEW.
  REDWOOD FALLS.
  DELHI.

LAT...LON 4468 9537 4456 9503 4420 9550 4423 9559
      4446 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 218DEG 32KT 4437 9548

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             MYRTLE                  43.56N 93.16W
06/23/2013  E1.25 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   PUBLIC

            RELAYED FROM LOCAL MEDIA

&&

FRANKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNZ054-064-230830-
LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
232 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AT 226 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF ALBEE TO
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDRICKS TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NASSAU.
  BURR.
  PORTER.
  ST LEO.
  PROVIDENCE.
  CERRO GORDO.
  MADISON.
  CANBY.

LAT...LON 4521 9647 4528 9645 4526 9630 4522 9625
      4519 9611 4517 9610 4516 9605 4503 9588
      4463 9571 4462 9628 4463 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 250DEG 38KT 4512 9680 4441 9649
          4381 9646

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
239 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

MNZ065>067-073-074-230830-
BROWN-MCLEOD-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
239 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AT 235 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SLEEPY EYE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FRANKLIN.
  FAIRFAX.
  HECTOR.
  BUFFALO LAKE.
  STEWART.

LAT...LON 4482 9467 4467 9433 4445 9479 4454 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 217DEG 31KT 4451 9480