Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Milwaukee, WI

916 
WWUS53 KMKX 040008
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
708 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIC021-027-047-040045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-131004T0045Z/
COLUMBIA WI-DODGE WI-GREEN LAKE WI-
708 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GREEN LAKE...NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 704 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CAMBRIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARKESAN AROUND 715 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ASTICO AND FOX LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4374 8890 4355 8890 4356 8921 4365 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 260DEG 18KT 4362 8904

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MBK

996 
WWUS53 KMKX 040031
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
731 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIC021-027-047-040045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-131004T0045Z/
COLUMBIA WI-DODGE WI-GREEN LAKE WI-
731 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GREEN LAKE...NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 728 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MARKESAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREEN
LAKE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4356 8915 4365 8910 4365 8900 4368 8890
      4355 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 260DEG 18KT 4364 8888

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
MBK

226 
WWUS53 KMKX 040045
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIC021-027-047-040055-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-131004T0045Z/
COLUMBIA WI-DODGE WI-GREEN LAKE WI-
745 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREEN LAKE...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE 
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLUMBIA COUNTY. 

ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 

LAT...LON 4356 8915 4365 8910 4365 8900 4368 8890
      4355 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 265DEG 24KT 4357 8881

$$

MBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE JUST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY JUST A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW. THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR TWO SLIDE THROUGH.
SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY EQUAL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH A BIT MORE. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND SPC IS
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THINKING AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GET PRETTY LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE
WARM FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GROUND WET FROM
RECENT RAINFALL...THINKING THE LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
SEEM REASONABLE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING
DENSE IN SPOTS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL
DEFINITELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT GETS AND HOW MUCH SUN
POKES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT HIGHS ON THE MILD SIDE...CRACKING 80 IN THE
SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS STILL FASTER...THE ECMWF SLOWEST
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM IN BETWEEN.

WILL USE CONSENSUS BLEND POP THAT PUSHES PCPN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE 850 MB JET INCREASES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NRN HALF OF CWA. THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY...BUT
WESTERN CWA COULD SEE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEFORE REGION
BECOMES SOMEWHAT CAPPED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.

HIGH POPS THEN MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA SATURDAY
AHEAD OF OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT. SEVERE PROBABILITY OUTPUT...CWASP
ETC...BASED ON THE PREFERRED SLOWER MODELS HAVE THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE HIGH POPS AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE...HAVE TO LOOK AT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
PW/S RISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 INCH AND 1.75 INCH OR BETWEEN 200 AND 225
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WITH CWA IN WARM
SECTOR AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LEAVING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE SLOW SOLUTION...THEN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
SUNDAY WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
THROUGH STATE. COLD POOL OVER REGION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE MID 40 AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW TO MEDIUM.

COOLER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH A WEAK TROUGH BRINGING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT. THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE IS STILL QUITE THE MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM PATCHES OF CLEARING TO IFR CIGS.
CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE JUST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STALLED OR SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH THE FRONT STUCK IN THE AREA...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. WILL PROBABLY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID OR LATE
MORNING TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
517 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-042230-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
517 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AREAS OF FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-042230-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
517 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH
TO SHEBOYGAN. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ056-062-032100-
IOWA-SAUK-
300 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL SAUK COUNTIES...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONE ROCK AIRPORT BY 330 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
506 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ046-056-057-032300-
COLUMBIA-MARQUETTE-SAUK-
506 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN SAUK...NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BARABOO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST BARABOO AND BARABOO BY 510 PM CDT...
  PORTAGE BY 545 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
538 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BARABOO                 43.47N 89.74W
10/03/2013  E1.50 INCH       SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            RADAR ESTIMATED 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
            IN BARABOO...RESULTING IN MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
548 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BARABOO                 43.47N 89.74W
10/03/2013  E1.50 INCH       SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            RADAR ESTIMATED 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
            IN BARABOO...RESULTING IN MINOR STREET FLOODING. SOME
            CARS TRYING TO PASS THROUGH THE HIGH WATER STALLED
            OUT...MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
550 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BARABOO             43.47N 89.72W
10/03/2013                   SAUK               WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

MEB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
621 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ047-057-040000-
COLUMBIA-GREEN LAKE-
621 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREEN LAKE COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DALTON BY 640 PM CDT...
  KINGSTON BY 650 PM CDT...
  FRIESLAND BY 655 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

WOOD