Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Milwaukee, WI

505 
WWUS53 KMKX 032044
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIC049-111-032054-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-131003T2100Z/
IOWA WI-SAUK WI-
344 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAUK AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4321 9043 4321 9038 4321 9035 4321 9029
      4317 9020 4333 9019 4337 9003 4314 8997
      4311 9043 4320 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 256DEG 19KT 4322 9021

$$

WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

.UPDATE...COMPLEX FORECAST NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. VIS SAT SHOWS A
HOLE IN THE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS/NEAR DANE-COLUMBIA-DODGE COUNTIES
THAT IS STEADILY FILLING IN WITH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. SFC OBS IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL REPORTING AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS DOWN TO 1
SM AND LESS AT A FEW SITES. PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN\T BE RULED OUT
GIVEN LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE REPORTED AT KEFT. FOG EXPECTED TO
STEADILY IMPROVE/LIFT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
UPSTREAM COMING IN. WET CONDITIONS OTHERWISE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
RADAR SHOWS LARGE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
TO DUBUQUE IA TO EVANSTON IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE CWA. FARTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COMPLICATE MATTERS.

HI-RES MODELS AND SPC SSEO GENERALLY HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WX/POPS AFTER 18Z AND THEN INTO THE EVENING. THIS MATCHES THE
CURRENT FORECAST WELL. CAVEAT THOUGH IS THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT WELL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE DVN CWA
ISN\T BEING CAPTURED/RESOLVED. SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT IN
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FLAVOR...AT LEAST EARLY ON IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONCEPTUAL MODEL/CURRENT THINKING
HASN\T CHANGED MUCH. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. GIVEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND
THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE LATER ON...MODERATE ML AND MU
CAPE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AROUND 30 KTS 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...TRAVERSING S/W TROUGH LATER ON THAT\S PRESENTLY IN CENTRAL
IA...WARM FRONT BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND ANY RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WX/POPS FORECAST AS IS EXCEPT TO
REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...THERE IS QUITE THE MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO 1/4
MI VISIBILITY. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY HANG ONTO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THOUGH BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY HEADING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL REACH AREAS FROM MADISON TO
RACINE BY 17Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING
WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FORECASTING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
FOR THE TIME.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES UNTIL THE FRONT GETS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MODELS
INDICATING THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO NOT A
TON OF CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN INVERTED TROF STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN TO EASTERN NEB
AND FINALLY TO THE PARENT LOW OVER WESTERN KS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. THERE IS A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA THRU NORTHERN IL.  THIS WARM FRONT
SEPARATES SOME VERY MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH /MID 60 DEWPOINTS/ FROM
THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL OF THE
CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE INVERTED
TROF. HOWEVER...BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SW WI...WE ARE SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THAT AREA INTERACTS WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND THE
REMAINS OF A COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE.  IT SHOULD ACTUALLY LEAP
NORTH AS WE MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WAS SET UP EARLIER
LAST EVENING. THE H8 WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH BY NOW.

GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE THE WARM FRONT IN THE VCNTY TODAY...ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS...AND THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF COMING IN THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE BEST POPS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE QUIET EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF
MADISON WHERE THE CURRENT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY JUST MENTIONED WILL
LIKELY CLIP THAT AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS...IT APPEARS WE WILL
SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE REMAINING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES WHERE THE LINGERING PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT COULD MAKE
CONVECTION A HIGHER PROBABILITY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WHICH...AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION...IS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...GETTING
CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR WHAT IS NORMAL. SO...HEAVY RAIN
STILL A THREAT.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED SCENARIO LEADING UP TO THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE INTENSE LOW ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF VARIABILITY GOING
FORWARD. ALSO...CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF REDEFINING/CHANGING THE
EVOLUTION OF EVERYTHING ELSE GOING FORWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED 500MB UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NE/SD BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NE/KS TO MN/IA AS IT
STRENGTHENS. THE BOUNDARY THAT USED TO BE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TRIMMED
DOWN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE IL BORDER TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY...UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A COUPLED JET...NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND 700MB OMEGA WILL COME TOGETHER OVER SOUTHWEST WI
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST CAPE /GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG/ AND BULK SHEAR /30-40 KTS/. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TO SUSTAIN ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT COULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL
BUT SOUTHEAST WI...WITH THE HATCHED AREA /SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK/
OVER SOUTHEAST WI JUST WEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER WI WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ COULD LEAD TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE ON SATURDAY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN. MOST MODELS ASIDE FROM THE NAM CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH WI. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER PREFERS A 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN MODEL BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SPC REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 FOR NOW...BUT MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LEADING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
IF THE SLOW 00Z ECMWF PANS OUT. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO END SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR WRAPPED INTO THE MID LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL FOR THE DAY.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR AND SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN TO WI FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 70S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID WEEK
AND SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES...AND THIS LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORNING LOOKING RATHER QUIET.
THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT LIKELY
TO BE HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THAT SHORT
WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MORE AND STRONGER STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-040830-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
326 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-040830-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
326 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS WARM...MOIST AIR SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

DAVIS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

WIZ056-062-032100-
IOWA-SAUK-
300 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL SAUK COUNTIES...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONE ROCK AIRPORT BY 330 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

WOOD