Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG/POTENTIAL DAMMAGING WINDS ASSOCD WITH LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS NOW ENTERING WESTERN CWA. THIS LINE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY EXHIBITING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND BROKEN S SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF CELL ROTATION.
LTL IF ANY LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH THE LINE BUT WILL ISSUE SVR
TSTM WARNINGS IF NECESSARY TO CONVEY THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
LINE WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS EXITING
OF THE OUTER BANKS AROUND 5 AM. EVEN OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WINDS
WILL GUST 40-50 MPH IN THE STRONG OF SYNOPTIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL BE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z BUT THERE COULD A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FOR THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR DUE TO THE LARGE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BETWEEN
7 AND 10 AM BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE
COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...BASED EXTENDED ON 00Z ECMWF AS IT MATCHED UP
WELL WITH HPC SURFACE DEPICTION THROUGH WED. MOST OF THE EXTENDED
WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE AND
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH AND
TEMPORARILY DIG THE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OUT SUNDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR. THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
NO PRECIP IS FORECAST. NEXT IS A TROF WHICH PASSES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. LASTLY...THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND IT TOO HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS LIKELY
WITH NARROW BAND OF INTENSE SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH 3 OR 4 AM. POSTFRONTAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
10-12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...GENERALLY VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND
A DRY COLD FRONT...FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS. GUSTY
WINDS ON SATURDAY AS WELL...FROM THE WEST 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
10 TO 16 FT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AFTER 10-11Z
WITH THE FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST AND BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY LATE MORNING REACHING 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6
TO 8 FT LATE IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...USED THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS FOR THE LONG TERM
MARINE PACKAGE. RATHER BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THE TWO BEST BOATING DAYS WILL BE SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING STRONG SSW FLOW WILL PUSH WATERS LEVELS TO 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG SOUNDSIDE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT. ALSO ROUGH SURF WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
BEACHES OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST AS NEAR SHORE
BREAKING WAVES BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY PROMPTING
THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>094-098.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/RF/HSA
MARINE...BTC/RF/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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