Alert archive / Oregon / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Medford, OR

August 10, 2013Douglas County, Oregon

NWS Medford, OR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 10, 2013, 3:52 PM PDT for Douglas County, Oregon. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 10, 2013, 3:52 PM PDT (22:52 UTC)
Expired: Aug 10, 2013, 4:15 PM PDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Medford, OR
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Douglas County, OR

The radar

The Medford radar (KMAX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 167 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -184 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1220 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 10, 2:21 PM PDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 2:21 PM PDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
221 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE CASCADES AND EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. MEANWHILE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY IS ERODING...SO IT COULD BE A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CAL...JOSEPHINE AND
JACKSON COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME THAT COULD
BE MODERATE TO SEVERE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MODIFIED THE MORNING SOUNDING FOR THAT IT'S
EXPECTED TO LOOK LIKE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT'S SHOWING CAPE VALUES
NEAR 1400 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND LIFTED
INDICES NEAR -6. THE RAP 13 AND LOCAL HRRR MODELS PUT MOST OF THE
QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS AND
QPF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WITH AT THE SAME TIME SHORTWAVES
ARE APPROACHING. SO EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE INCREASED ACTIVITY AS
WELL.

RIGHT NOW...NOT MUCH IS GOING ON IN MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY...BUT WERE GETTING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...THEN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES...NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WE'LL GET
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE CASCADES...EASTSIDE AND PARTS OF
THE SISKIYOUS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IT'S POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SISKIYOUS.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN MONDAY WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES INTO NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES. EVEN THEN WERE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTING SHOP WEST OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH A CONTINUES SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. WHILE I
CANNOT RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
CASCADES...THE ODDS ARE LOW THAT WE'LL GET ANYTHING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS AND HAIL.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND REDUCTION IN VIS IN
HEAVIER STORMS BETWEEN 22-03Z. STORMS MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST AFFECTING THE WESTSIDE TERMINALS.

AT THE COAST...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN BETWEEN 2-3Z AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF KOTH BETWEEN 22-2Z.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ023>026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-030-031.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:07 PM PDT, 45 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 10, 3:09 PM PDT, 43 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:09 PM PDT, 43 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 10, 3:20 PM PDT, 32 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:41 PM PDT, 11 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 9, 5:05 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Douglas	40 min
Aug 9, 5:22 PM PDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MFR	Douglas	23 min
Aug 9, 6:40 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Josephine	50 min
Aug 9, 10:51 PM PDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MFR	Douglas, Jackson	24 min
Aug 10, 5:03 AM PDT	Red Flag Warning	MFR	Douglas, Harney, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake and 1 more	15 hr
Aug 10, 2:50 PM PDT	Flash Flood Warning	MFR	Douglas	115 min
Aug 10, 3:07 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Josephine	38 min
Aug 10, 3:09 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR		51 min
Aug 10, 3:41 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Douglas	34 min
Aug 9, 6:14 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Del Norte	31 min
Aug 9, 6:47 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	MFR	Modoc	28 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oregon, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.