Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR

556 
WWUS86 KMFR 102329
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
429 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

ORZ617-621>625-110600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130811T0600Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
429 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
617 621 622 623 624 625 IN SOUTHERN OREGON...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 617...621...622...623...624 AND 
  625...

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONE 617 IN UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST AND IN THE
  OREGON CASCADES FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  ELSEWHERE...ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF FREMONT-
  WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST...AS WELL AS FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTHWARD
  THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY AND WETTING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF A
  QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND
  623. ELSEWHERE...WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...FASTER
  STORM MOVEMENT MEANS AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN WETTING
  EXCEPT FROM AREAS WHERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS OCCUR.

* OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL...GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
  ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS. MOST THUNDERSTORM CELLS
  WILL BE WEAKER.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...3 EXCEPT 4 IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617
  AND 623.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN NEW
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALLOW NEW FIRES TO SPREAD WHERE
  FUELS REMAIN DRY.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

BTL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

477 
WWUS86 KMFR 110317
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013


ORZ617-621>625-110430-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130811T0600Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES..617...621...622...623...624...625 IN SOUTHERN
OREGON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ONLY A  SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR 

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 AM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE CONVECTION APPEARS ON
TAP TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AN ONGOING
FEATURE ON THE RADAR ALL NIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES
HAVE RECEIVED SOME WETTING RAINS...BUT THE NUMBER OF NEW STARTS
DUE TO LIGHTNING REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER THESE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO
MOVE NORTH...THE CENTER OF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TODAY...AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. THE REGION WILL THEN RESIDE
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE AND ALONG THE
CASCADES...WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASED CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ON
THE EAST SIDE. THE NAM SHOWED THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE GFS DOES THE SAME BUT A BIT LATER...NOT REALLY GETTING
INTO THE ACTION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING
RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
AS GOOD OR BETTER FOR TODAY AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY THIS EVENING. WITH
ALL THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING THUNDER
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE AS STEEP...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY NOT AS
STRONG...THE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW...MEANING
CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND LESS
VIGOROUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE GREATLY BY
SUNDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED LOW EXITS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS DOES HINT THAT A FEW SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A FEATURE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO MERIT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS...AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR AREAS
OF CONVECTION. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY IN THE UMPQUA...ROGUE...AND ILLINOIS
BASINS IN OREGON...AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA.
OTHERWISE...INLAND AREAS SHOULD EXPECT PREVAILING VFR.

MVFR AND IFR ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY
MIDDAY...BUT SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWERED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
COAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021-023>026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-030-031.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

BPN