Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Memphis, TN

May 21, 20134 counties in Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2013, 12:51 AM CDT for 4 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2013, 12:51 AM CDT (05:51 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2013, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Randolph County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 21, 12:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	3 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1940 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1451 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 8.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

844 
WUUS54 KMEG 210551
SVRMEG
ARC031-055-075-121-210630-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0069.130521T0551Z-130521T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
  CHARLES STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK
  ROCK...BONO...HOXIE...PARAGOULD...WALNUT RIDGE...CROWLEYS RIDGE
  STATE PARK...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK AND LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9136 3621 9136 3626 9132 3625 9127
      3627 9126 3625 9043 3593 9050 3585 9104
      3588 9105 3589 9135 3594 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 261DEG 52KT 3603 9116

$$

1 follow-up statement

115 
WWUS54 KMEG 210614
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
114 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARC031-055-075-121-210630-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130521T0630Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
114 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...WESTERN GREENE AND
NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 115 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DICUS...OR NEAR WALNUT RIDGE...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK ROCK...
BONO...HOXIE...PARAGOULD...POWHATAN...SEDGWICK...WALNUT RIDGE...
BIRDELL...SHARUM...FENDER...LESTERVILLE...ELNORA...MANSON AND
SHANNON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9124 3597 9123 3606 9122 3613 9121
      3618 9117 3624 9116 3627 9113 3625 9043
      3593 9050 3585 9104 3588 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 261DEG 52KT 3608 9075

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 20, 11:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 11:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD PUSH INTO RANDOLPH AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES BETWEEN 10-11 PM CDT. LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME BY
THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR. WILL UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS. UPDATE
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH
KJBR AFT 21/08Z AND GLANCE KMEM AFT 21/10Z. KMKL AND KTUP WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER
SHRAS AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. ANY LOWER CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND
TSRA TO DEVELOP AND START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ADDED TEMPOS FOR TSRAS AT
KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL FOR TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  88  70  83 /  10  30  80  50
MKL  71  85  69  82 /  10  30  70  50
JBR  70  84  66  82 /  60  60  80  30
TUP  70  88  69  82 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 8:47 PM CDT, 4 hours 4 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
847 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS AREA WILL INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. MANY LIMITING FACTORS COULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THOSE THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS THAT ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

KRM

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 21, 12:20 AM CDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ008-017-210600-
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
1220 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
45 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAVENDEN SPRINGS AT 1220 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9132 3650 9079 3607 9135 3607 9136
      3623 9136 3625 9133 3625 9127 3637 9128
      3639 9132 3642 9132 3643 9136 3645 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 220DEG 35KT 3638 9129

Special weather statement, May 21, 12:47 AM CDT, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-210615-
CLAY AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
1247 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
45 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF SUCCESS TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK AT 1247 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BLACK ROCK...CORNING...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...
HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK...
MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD...POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9037 3601 9040 3596 9073 3597 9085
      3594 9087 3588 9136 3623 9136 3625 9133
      3625 9127 3637 9128 3639 9132 3641 9131
      3643 9136 3646 9137 3650 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 261DEG 52KT 3659 9066 3602 9116

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 12:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Randolph	40 min
May 21, 12:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Cross, Poinsett, St. Francis	45 min
May 21, 12:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	28 min
May 21, 1:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	45 min
May 21, 1:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay	51 min
May 21, 1:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis	49 min
May 21, 1:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	41 min
May 21, 1:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis	38 min
May 21, 1:53 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	52 min
May 21, 2:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi	50 min
May 21, 6:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	30 min
May 21, 6:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Greene	31 min
May 21, 7:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett	52 min
May 21, 7:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Cross	48 min
May 21, 7:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay, Greene	45 min
May 21, 7:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Randolph	48 min
May 21, 7:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Greene, Mississippi	47 min
May 21, 7:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Cross	47 min
May 21, 8:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crittenden	55 min
May 21, 8:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Mississippi	43 min
May 21, 11:10 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Mississippi	45 hr
May 21, 3:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	45 min
May 21, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	40 min
May 21, 3:20 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Poinsett	25 min
May 21, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett, St. Francis	37 min
May 21, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Lee, St. Francis	41 min
May 21, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	46 min
May 21, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.