Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT (PWATS > 2 INCHES). ANY STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION HELPING TO STALL THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS WOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO TRAIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

AREA POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THE LATEST AND
EXPECTED PATTERN. UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HWO WILL BE SENT OUT
SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS GOING
TO CHANGE FINALLY. THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR AREA FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS PUSHED NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE
CONVECTION EAST INTO OUR AREA. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THIS
EVENING...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. AS THE LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS DEEPER ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. TIMING OF THE
FRONT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
THE COOLEST AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND YESTERDAY MAY
NEED A FLOOD WATCH/ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE
COOL AND DRY DAY. STARTING ON SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING
AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF ON SATURDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A COOL AND WET PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AND INTO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO THOUGH...AS MODELS ALWAYS HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KMEM AND
KMKL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS KTUP
LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF -TSRA AT KTUP AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN CASE AN EXTENSION PAST 06Z IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY GO NORTHWEST BEHIND CONVECTION BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER A FEW HOURS POST CONVECTION. THIS INITIAL
LINE OF STORMS MAY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KMEM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND IMPACT KTUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  88  70  85 /  90  50  50  50
MKL  71  89  68  84 /  90  50  50  40
JBR  73  88  68  83 /  60  50  30  30
TUP  74  91  70  87 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

TNZ089-090-130030-
FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
645 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTH OF SOMERVILLE AT 645 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BOLIVAR...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 8893 3510 8898 3513 8955 3533 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 274DEG 22KT 3530 8936