Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

MORNING UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AS CLOUD COVER IS MORE SPARSE IN
COVERAGE THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SHIFTED NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...AS A RESULT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COOL AND WET AUGUST CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A
POTENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS MIGRATING
THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE BOTH
FEATURE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY HAIL...BUT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DO NOT INTEND TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH
ACCUMULATIONS...AND RADAR TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WATCH
DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...WITH NO STRONG INDICATION THAT STORMS WILL TRAIN
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...SO I DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR...WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN THE 2.5
TO 3.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WHERE 3-HR GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD BE
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTS...AN WILL BE
MONITORED MOST CLOSELY. 12 HOUR RAINFALL GUIDANCE IN LESS THAN
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...HIGHEST IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND DIVE SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN BEFORE
TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE MIDSOUTH MIDWEEK WITH IMPULSES OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ENHANCED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN MEAGER SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL WIND OF
TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN. ONCE AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DEPENDENT ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER AIRMASS BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW DRY DAYS IN
STORE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
TO OUR WEST DURING THE WEEK...EXTENDING FAR INTO CANADA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

SHRAS/TSRAS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS HAD NO CHOICE TO
MENTION VCTS WITH VARIOUS TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK IN COVERAGE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE CWA.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE TEMPORARILY LOWERED TO MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER TSRAS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  90  75  87  74 /  60  50  50  50
MKL  86  71  88  72 /  60  50  50  50
JBR  89  73  86  72 /  60  50  50  30
TUP  89  75  90  74 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
418 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
418 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.