Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE BREATHING ROOM TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS WE
ARE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE
STORMS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS BY
SUNRISE. WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FEATURING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S. LAPS INSTABILITY TRENDS ARE DECLINING...INDICATING CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND LI'S -2 TO -4C...MOST
UNSTABLE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SATELLITE AND ASOS DATA SHOW
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
WEST TENNESSEE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW RAPID
DESTABILIZATION...OR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AFTER SUNRISE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF
THE ONGOING STORMS IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTH MISSOURI...AS
THAT MAIN AREA OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

WE WILL SEE A RATHER STAGNATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT WE HAVE
SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY INCLUDE THE MIDSOUTH. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN
THE MIDSOUTH...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MCS AFTER SUNSET AND
MAINTAIN AT LEAST STRONG IF NOT SEVERE STATUS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY SHIFT INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WEST
TENNESSEE...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...A STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTH MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST
ARKANSAS BY SUNSET...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND SHIFT INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE/NORTHWEST ALABAMA
AROUND SUNRISE. FEEL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY COLD POOL WOULD ALLOW A MCS TO
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTER SUNSET. PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVER WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT HAIL AND
QCLS-TYPE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE MAY BE THE MOST AT RISK TODAY AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
THE MOST DESTABILIZATION BEFORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BEGIN THEIR
PUSH EAST. GFS AND NAM INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG AND LI'S LESS THAN -7 THIS AFTERNOON...VALUES NOT
UNREALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLEAR SKIES. LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT WHOLLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. LIKEWISE...SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT...BUT NOT
ALARMING. EXPECTING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT A HIGH END
OUTBREAK AT THIS POINT.

RAINFALL IS ANOTHER BIG CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE MAY TRANSITION FROM A TRADITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INTO
A FLASH FLOOD EVENT THIS EVENING. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY EAST ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HPC INDICATES
2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. LOCALLY...IF
OR WHERE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION
THOSE VALUES COULD EASILY BE DOUBLED RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER SUNDAY...MAINLY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS BACK IN
TO THE UPPER 80S AFTER MIDWEEK. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW TRANSITION INTO A WEAK...BROAD TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS DUE TO LOWER CIGS.
MODERATE TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS
NEARING 20-25KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY
HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT PUSHING SITES TOWARDS IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOWER CIGS AS WELL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MILD
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER 02/08Z TO 02/10Z.
-ABS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  87  68  82  62 /  70  80  30  10
MKL  84  66  80  58 /  70  80  20  10
JBR  82  62  79  59 /  80  80  10  10
TUP  89  72  82  59 /  50  80  50  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DESOTO.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONALLY...FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA
ARKANSAS TO DECATURVILLE TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN SUPPORT
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.