Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Memphis, TN

338 
WGUS74 KMEG 280612
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
112 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

TNC039-280622-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-130428T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR TN-
112 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DECATUR COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3578 8797 3572 8803 3568 8801 3560 8802
      3555 8798 3547 8799 3544 8804 3542 8799
      3540 8799 3541 8808 3540 8821 3542 8824
      3557 8822 3561 8819 3584 8818 3584 8802
      3582 8802 3581 8796

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01Z...A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. KNQA WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAVE SHOWN TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE
FIRST CLUSTER EXTENDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF ARLINGTON TO
DECATURVILLE TENNESSEE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS YIELDS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1600 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA...AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES BETWEEN 200-300
M2/S2. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THINK SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM/TORNADIC THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TWO CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TRIM BACK SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND GRADUALLY TRIM BACK THE TORNADO WATCH AS
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST. WILL ALSO UPDATE ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW THROUGH LITTLE ROCK...MEMPHIS...AND CORINTH
MISSISSIPPI. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH MIDDLE 70S OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR THE MO/KY/AR BORDER AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DOWN TO WYNNE ARKANSAS...AND JACKSON/SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...OVERALL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN IDEAL WITH THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/
RESIDING DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WATER VALLEY TO
ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LARGE HAIL AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS. HOWEVER...NOT
ANTICIPATING A MUCH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CURRENT
SHORT TERM TRENDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING UP TO 1.6
INCHES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN FREE WEATHER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. LONG TERM MODELS STILL SUGGEST A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/S TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. KEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE POPS GOING THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME
UNTIL THE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
NEAR A SURFACE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS AND A WARM FRONT BETWEEN PARIS
AND SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST OUTSIDE OF MEM AND JBR AND THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS FOR
NOW THROUGH 28/01Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OR
PASS NEARBY MKL AND TUP NEARBY BETWEEN 28/01-03Z. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT...AND A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TAF SITES.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  72  55  81 /  70  30   0  10
MKL  57  71  52  79 /  80  30   0  10
JBR  55  71  52  80 /  60  20   0  10
TUP  62  73  52  80 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1016 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 AM CDT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AREA RIVERS AND OTHER WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
RISES AS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1007 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            STRUCTUAL DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR BELMONT ROAD AND SINAI DR.
            NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             DANCYVILLE              35.42N 89.30W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 76 AND DANCYVILLE.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1035 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN TRAPPED BY DOWNED POWER LINES HAVE
            BEEN RESCUED. MULTIPLE POWER LINES POWER POLES AND TREES
            DOWN AROUND THE AREA. SOME HOMES HAVE RECEIVED DAMAGE AND
            TWO BARNS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED DESTROYED. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            DAMAGE.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1053 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             1 E HENDERSON           35.44N 88.63W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
            HENDERSON.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             12 NNE ABERDEEN         33.99N 88.47W
04/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       MONROE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR SPLUNGE,MS.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 ENE ABERDEEN         33.89N 88.36W
04/27/2013                   MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS MILL CREEK ROAD IN THE
            SPLUNGE COMMUNITY OF MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE
            REPORT RECEIVED VIA MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

0830 PM     HAIL             3 SW JONESTOWN          34.29N 90.49W
04/27/2013  M1.25 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR JONESTOWN,MS.

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MILAN                   35.92N 88.75W
04/27/2013                   GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTHSIDE MARKET AND REGIONS BANK PARKING LOTS ARE
            FLOODED OUT.

0940 PM     HAIL             DANCYVILLE              35.42N 89.30W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 76 AND DANCYVILLE.

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            STRUCTUAL DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR BELMONT ROAD AND SINAI DR.
            NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN TRAPPED BY DOWNED POWER LINES HAVE
            BEEN RESCUED. MULTIPLE POWER LINES POWER POLES AND TREES
            DOWN AROUND THE AREA. SOME HOMES HAVE RECEIVED DAMAGE AND
            TWO BARNS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED DESTROYED. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            DAMAGE.

1050 PM     HAIL             1 E HENDERSON           35.44N 88.63W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
            HENDERSON.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             GATES                   35.84N 89.41W
04/27/2013  E0.88 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 51 NEAR GATES, TN.

0431 PM     HAIL             BELMONT                 34.51N 88.21W
04/27/2013  E1.75 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES NEAR
            BELMONT.

0515 PM     HAIL             12 NNE ABERDEEN         33.99N 88.47W
04/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       MONROE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR SPLUNGE,MS.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 ENE ABERDEEN         33.89N 88.36W
04/27/2013                   MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS MILL CREEK ROAD IN THE
            SPLUNGE COMMUNITY OF MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE
            REPORT RECEIVED VIA MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MILAN                   35.92N 88.75W
04/27/2013                   GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTHSIDE MARKET AND REGIONS BANK PARKING LOTS ARE
            FLOODED OUT.

0830 PM     HAIL             3 SW JONESTOWN          34.29N 90.49W
04/27/2013  M1.25 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR JONESTOWN,MS.

0940 PM     HAIL             DANCYVILLE              35.42N 89.30W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 76 AND DANCYVILLE.

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            STRUCTUAL DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR BELMONT ROAD AND SINAI DR.
            NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SOMERVILLE       35.40N 89.43W
04/27/2013                   FAYETTE            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN TRAPPED BY DOWNED POWER LINES HAVE
            BEEN RESCUED. MULTIPLE POWER LINES POWER POLES AND TREES
            DOWN AROUND THE AREA. SOME HOMES HAVE RECEIVED DAMAGE AND
            TWO BARNS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED DESTROYED. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            DAMAGE.

1050 PM     HAIL             1 E HENDERSON           35.44N 88.63W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
            HENDERSON.

&&

AJC