Alert archive / Tennessee / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Memphis, TN

April 27, 20134 counties in Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Apr 27, 2013, 8:49 PM CDT for 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 27, 2013, 8:49 PM CDT (01:49 UTC)
Expired: Apr 27, 2013, 11:45 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Carroll County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Weakley County, TN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 108 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -100 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 579 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 244 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

200 
WGUS54 KMEG 280149
FFWMEG
TNC017-053-079-183-280445-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0024.130428T0149Z-130428T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
849 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 849 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 1 INCH OF
  RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND           
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF 
  RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUNTINGDON
  AND MCKENZIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 8813 3612 8820 3588 8821 3585 8820
      3585 8818 3582 8818 3582 8857 3580 8860
      3580 8870 3606 8871 3623 8841 3624 8811
      3622 8811

$$

1 follow-up statement

098 
WGUS74 KMEG 280423
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TNC017-053-079-183-280434-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130428T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEAKLEY TN-CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-HENRY TN-
1123 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN HENRY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GIBSON...CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY
COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3622 8813 3612 8820 3588 8821 3585 8820
      3585 8818 3582 8818 3582 8857 3580 8860
      3580 8870 3606 8871 3623 8841 3624 8811
      3622 8811

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 27, 7:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 27, 7:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW THROUGH LITTLE ROCK...MEMPHIS...AND CORINTH
MISSISSIPPI. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH MIDDLE 70S OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR THE MO/KY/AR BORDER AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DOWN TO WYNNE ARKANSAS...AND JACKSON/SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...OVERALL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN IDEAL WITH THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/
RESIDING DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WATER VALLEY TO
ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LARGE HAIL AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS. HOWEVER...NOT
ANTICIPATING A MUCH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CURRENT
SHORT TERM TRENDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING UP TO 1.6
INCHES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN FREE WEATHER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. LONG TERM MODELS STILL SUGGEST A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/S TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. KEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE POPS GOING THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME
UNTIL THE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
NEAR A SURFACE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS AND A WARM FRONT BETWEEN PARIS
AND SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST OUTSIDE OF MEM AND JBR AND THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS FOR
NOW THROUGH 28/01Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OR
PASS NEARBY MKL AND TUP NEARBY BETWEEN 28/01-03Z. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT...AND A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TAF SITES.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  72  55  81 /  70  30   0  10
MKL  57  71  52  79 /  80  30   0  10
JBR  55  71  52  80 /  70  20   0  10
TUP  62  73  52  80 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 27, 3:53 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
353 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING...PREDOMINANTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AREA RIVERS AND OTHER WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
RISES AS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:34 PM CDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             BELMONT                 34.51N 88.21W
04/27/2013  E1.75 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES NEAR
            BELMONT.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:56 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
456 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             GATES                   35.84N 89.41W
04/27/2013  E0.88 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 51 NEAR GATES, TN.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Apr 27, 5:44 PM CDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
544 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             12 NNE ABERDEEN         33.99N 88.47W
04/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       MONROE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR SPLUNGE,MS.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Apr 27, 5:46 PM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             GATES                   35.84N 89.41W
04/27/2013  E0.88 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 51 NEAR GATES, TN.

0431 PM     HAIL             BELMONT                 34.51N 88.21W
04/27/2013  E1.75 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES NEAR
            BELMONT.

0515 PM     HAIL             12 NNE ABERDEEN         33.99N 88.47W
04/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       MONROE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR SPLUNGE,MS.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Apr 27, 6:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 ENE ABERDEEN         33.89N 88.36W
04/27/2013                   MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS MILL CREEK ROAD IN THE
            SPLUNGE COMMUNITY OF MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE
            REPORT RECEIVED VIA MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

JLH

Local storm report, Apr 27, 8:40 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
840 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MILAN                   35.92N 88.75W
04/27/2013                   GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTHSIDE MARKET AND REGIONS BANK PARKING LOTS ARE
            FLOODED OUT.

&&

AJC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 27, 7:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Henry	3 hr
Apr 27, 7:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Gibson	3 hr
Apr 27, 8:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Carroll, Gibson, Henry, Weakley	3 hr
Apr 27, 9:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Fayette, Haywood, Tipton	41 min
Apr 27, 9:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, Haywood, Madison	55 min
Apr 27, 9:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood, Madison	43 min
Apr 27, 10:20 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman	25 min
Apr 27, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Henderson, Madison	48 min
Apr 27, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, Henderson, McNairy	50 min
Apr 27, 11:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Decatur	3 hr
Apr 27, 11:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Decatur, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy	61 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.