Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND
WILL LIKELY INTERRUPT MANY AFTERNOON LABOR DAY PLANS. HOWEVER...I
WOUND NOT CANCEL PLANS ALL TOGETHER...STORMS SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 30-45 MIN'S. SECURE ANY LAWN FURNITURE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE
LIGHTNING AND RESUME THE FESTIVITIES AFTER STORMS PASS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AT 2:00 PM IT WAS
LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 40 IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH A
DRIER COOLER AIRMASS WORKING INTO TO THE MIDSOUTH TO ITS NORTH AND
WEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE. CURRENTLY...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...BUT LOW 60S...EVEN UPPER 50S ARE NOT FAR AWAY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEY ARE DEVELOPING IN A HIGH
INSTABILITY...LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FEATURING CAPE'S APPROACHING
3000 AND LI'S IN THE -3 TO -6 RANGE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS LESS
THAN 25 KTS. NEGATIVE 10C DEGREE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
20-21K FT WITH -20C AROUND 25K FT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL IS
FAIRLY LOW...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH LIGHTNING IS NOT A SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETER FOR WARNING PURPOSES...THAT IS TRULY THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ONGOING TODAY. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY BECOME CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MIDNIGHT. FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

TOMORROW...THAT COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...OR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED...BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
INSTEAD OF THE LOW 70S RESULTING IN MUCH MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOMORROW TROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES OUR WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT FROM AROUND
LITTLE ROCK TO JONESBORO TO WEAKLEY COUNTY. OTHERS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG I-40 BETWEEN MEMPHIS AND FOREST CITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ACTVITY
SHOULD ALL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG MKL AND TUP TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

WER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  88  68  89 /  20   0  10  10
MKL  64  85  58  86 /  10   0  10  10
JBR  66  86  62  88 /  10   0  10  10
TUP  70  89  66  90 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
145 PM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-032045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
145 PM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH...BUT MOST LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT
SPOTTERS AND LOCAL COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG
WINDS AND ANY ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

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