Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Memphis, TN

429 
WGUS74 KMEG 021200
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
700 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

MSC135-021345-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-130902T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TALLAHATCHIE MS-
700 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY...

AT 700 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 9046 3399 9045 3407 9010 3387 9012
      3383 9025 3383 9046

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. SBCAPES
SHOULD RISE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING
MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THESE
AREAS...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DEGREE
OF EXPECTED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHER NORTH...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES AND
USHER IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD LOWER TODAY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. A
SLOW WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL DUE TO THE RAIN THERE
EARLIER TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MORE SHRAS/TSRAS COULD
FIRE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF KJBR SO PULLED THE VCTS THERE AND CONTINUED IT
ELSW. ANY ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING AT KMEM
AND KMKL AND BY MID AFTERNOON AT KTUP. LIGHT SW/CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NW DURING THE DAY.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  73  89  67 /  40  20   0   0
MKL  90  66  86  57 /  30  10   0   0
JBR  91  68  87  61 /  20  10   0   0
TUP  92  71  90  65 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
422 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT
SPOTTERS AND LOCAL COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG
WINDS AND ANY ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

JLH