Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
714 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORD WITH SPC HAVE INCLUDED REEVES COUNTY AND REMAINDER OF
THE PB IN THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIMITED VISIBILITY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 04Z FOR SE NM AND
ALL OF THE PB NORTH OF I-20. NO CHANGE FROM DISCUSSION BELOW.

ADDITIONAL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
139 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
139 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013 /1239 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
554 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TXZ058>060-067-172345-
LOVING-WARD-WINKLER-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
554 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING LOVING...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES...NORTHWESTERN WARD AND WEST CENTRAL WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF SLASH RANCH
AT 554 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 10342 3179 10332 3152 10343 3161 10412
      3195 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 272DEG 10KT 3181 10372

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             1 W LOVINGTON           32.95N 103.37W
06/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       LEA                NM   PUBLIC

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             LOVINGTON               32.95N 103.35W
06/17/2013  E0.88 INCH       LEA                NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GREGORY.MURDOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             7 N MENTONE             31.81N 103.60W
06/17/2013  E1.75 INCH       LOVING             TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL HAIL

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
721 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 N HOBBS              32.98N 103.16W
06/17/2013  E62 MPH          LEA                NM   STORM CHASER

            60 TO 62 MPH WIND GUSTS OCCURRED AT INTERSECTION 17 MILES
            NORTH OF HOBBS.

&&

MSCHULDT