Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.AVIATION...18/18Z TAF CYCLE

COMBO OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WL PREVAIL ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
CDFNT THAT WAS JUST TO THE NW OF AR AT MIDDAY. PRECIP WL BCM MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN AS THE CDFNT MOVES EWD INTO WRN AND
CNTRL AR. THE FNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CNTRL AR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND OUT OF ERN AR ARND 19/06Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY S/SWLY
WINDS THIS AFTN AT 15 TO 25 MPH WL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FNT AND RMN GUSTY. WIND SPEED
SHLD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS WILL
NEED TO BE DEALT WITH. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAIN
SMALL ENOUGH THAT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
USED.

THE PARADE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS PRETTY EASY TO SPOT ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING. FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FINALLY...A THIRD SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

FIRST UP WILL BE THE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY
CLEARING THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PULL
GULF MOISTURE IN WITH PWATS ALREADY INCREASING IN RESPONSE. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALREADY
NOTED AND WILL MOVE UP THE ISSUANCE TIME OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE UPWARDS ON AN INCH COULD FALL. OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY LACKING BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED.

SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF
HIGH PRESSURE. EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND FORECAST TO DIVE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN AS A WEAK IMPULSES SWINGS THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS. MAIN SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH ANOTHER VERY GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL OFF
ENOUGH TO SEE MORE WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY THAT ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. POSSIBILITY OF
A SQUALL LINE EXISTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY INACTIVE...WITH ARKANSAS BETWEEN
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE STATE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THURSDAY FRONT WILL STILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN NRN ARKANSAS AS THE LAST
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THAT SAID...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MODELS DO
NOT INSTILL CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES ON SAT. BY
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S STATEWIDE...AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE STATE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 AND 40 CORRIDOR.
STRONG WINDS...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ALSO...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH. ALSO...IN THE NORTH...THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START
OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FUTURE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR MORE DETAIL ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

64/44

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