Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Little Rock, AR

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
TOWARD ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION...WITH A LINE OF STORMS EVOLVING. THE LINE WILL SWEEP FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND WILL MAKE IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING THE FRONT...AND STORMS
WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY AT MORE THAN 50 MPH. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH 60 TO
80 MPH IN SOME CASES. THIS IS ENOUGH TO DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
TREES ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE NOW FOLLOWING A WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
AND HEAVY SNOW DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...IT IS
ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WHERE WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED.

WINDS WILL ALSO TURN SOMEWHAT WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...OR WHERE THERE IS NO COMPETITION FOR
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY. THE BIG SYSTEM ALOFT
DRIVING THIS EVENT WILL LAG A BIT TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY COOLER AIR OVERHEAD...AND THAT WILL BE DELAYED. WHILE
IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM AND UNSTABLE TOWARD THE GROUND...A LACK OF
COOLING UPSTAIRS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND
THIS COULD HELP REDUCE INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

OTHER THAN SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND TWO TO THREE TIMES HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. IN
GENERAL...RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
HOWEVER...TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS COULD MATERIALIZE IN PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 15
TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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