Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 PM CDT MON APR 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...
CI UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PNHDL VCNTY OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL AND SE FLOW UP CAPROCK
INTO PALO DURO CANYON. WINDS ON THE CAPROCK HAVE VEERED MORE
WESTERLY NOW WITH CONVERGENCE AXIS AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE ORIENTED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES
TO BE ENHANCED ALONG JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NRN AZ ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN PNHDL. SHORTWV RIDGE IN PLACE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SRN ROCKIES IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT LIFT TO CONTINUE ALONG DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR TRIPLE
POINT WITH STRONGER CDFNT PROGRESSING THROUGH PNHDL. STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZE READILY GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPES WITH
PEAK HEATING THEN UPSCALE INTO LARGER COMPLEX THIS EVENING AS LLJ
ENHANCES STORM INFLOW AND HODOGRAPHS BROADEN AND BECOME MORE CURVED.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH SECONDARY CONCERN
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS AND LEADING EDGE OF
STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MCS MAY
BACK BUILD WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ.

MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE POSTFRONTAL SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE SO
HAVE MAINTAINED STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEAR BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A
SOLID LAYER OF STRATUS WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE ADDED IN THROUGH
LATE TUE MORNING. GRADUALLY...INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WITH
TRANSITION TO MORE STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
DAY AND PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT EXTENDING FROM LUBBOCK SOUTH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS/TUE HIGHS DOWNWARD GIVEN
STRENGTH OF CAA...EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PROSPECTS OF H8 TEMPS
NEARING 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. A POS
TILTED TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
PROVIDING AMPLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...TO
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP WHICH WILL BE WELCOMED WITH
OPEN ARMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FA WILL
RECEIVE SOME RAIN...AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL GET THE MOST OUT OF
THE EVENT. PRECIP WILL SPREAD WESTWARD LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE CWA SHOULD BE
VOID OF PRECIP BY LATE THURS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRADES. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA. TEMPS IN THE NORTH...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFTING...THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE COOLED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN AND THUS HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SNOW
THROUGH 10AM WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ALOFT BEHIND THE TROF AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING WAY FOR A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROF FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY WEAK FRONT/DRYLINE SATURDAY WHICH
WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH NM AND WEST TX...BUT
OVERALL THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT BAD CONSIDERING THE TIMEFRAME. THE
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS WAS MUCH...MUCH WETTER THAN THE 12Z WHICH IS
A BIT HEART BREAKING...AND HAS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
WITH KEEPING THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY SLOTTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  46  36  52  36 /  30  40  60  30  10
TULIA         39  44  36  50  35 /  40  60  70  40  10
PLAINVIEW     42  45  36  50  36 /  40  60  70  40  10
LEVELLAND     46  50  38  54  39 /  30  40  60  30  10
LUBBOCK       45  49  38  52  38 /  40  50  70  40  10
DENVER CITY   48  63  39  58  39 /  30  40  50  30  10
BROWNFIELD    46  56  38  57  39 /  30  40  60  40  10
CHILDRESS     42  49  39  49  35 /  60  70  80  50  20
SPUR          51  51  39  51  38 /  80  60  70  60  20
ASPERMONT     53  60  42  48  37 /  80  70  70  60  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

24/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT MON APR 1 2013

TXZ021>044-021645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1131 AM CDT MON APR 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON... INCLUDING
MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE SOMETIME
IN THE MID AFTERNOON... NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SHARPENING
DRYLINE AND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT... AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED AT FIRST...BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN ADDITION... A BRIEF... ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... AND WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER
THAN MONDAY A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL WANE AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HOURS... PARTICULARLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY... RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING... BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY... THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE VERY
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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