Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
959 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A NEW WATCH AS A WELL
ORGANIZED SEVERE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR AREA ...SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH LUBBOCK AREA
BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100 PM...THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1 OR 2 AM OR SO BEFORE MOST ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE EAST.
SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY VERY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL. UPDATED GRIDS FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/

AVIATION...
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAS VEERED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
PERSIST FROM THIS DIRECTION THANKS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THUS NEARING KCDS.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED TO 11 KTS FROM THE NE AS A
RESULT OF THE NEARING FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT
NOT OVERLY STRONG /15-19 KTS/ BUT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR KCDS INITIALLY. OVERNIGHT...MVFR
CLOUD DECKS WILL FORM AND LINGER THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH GIVEN CONTINUED NE SFC
WINDS ENCOURAGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW PROVIDING FOR
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR PRECIP FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH POSSIBILITY FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
EVENT. THREE AREAS STAND OUT AS POSSIBILITIES FOR AVENUES OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST AND MOST CONFIDENT
ONE IS NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION THAT HAS ALREADY INITIATED ON MUCH
OF THE SPINE OF MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE CENTER OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDER
IS MOST CONCENTRATED IN AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AND IT IS THIS
AREA THAT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF MOVING ESEWD DOWN A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
SECONDARILY IS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A CLAYTON
NM TO DUMAS TO PERRYTON LINE AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...BOTH OF WHICH HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG
THEM. LASTLY IS A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM HOBBS TO SWEETWATER WHERE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY STALLED. SOME
CONFLUENCE NEAR THAT BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THAT
BOUNDARY COULD RELEASE SOME INSTABILITY BEFORE AFTN HEATING ENDS.
THAT SAID...FCST POPS WILL FAVOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST BEFORE
06Z THEN ERN THIRD BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. TREND WILL BE FROM LIKELY
CATEGORY IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS TO 30-40 PCT IN THE LESS FAVORED
ONES. SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST...ALTHOUGH LIMITED WARMING FROM
COOLISH TEMPS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIMITING ML CAPE
VALUES TO ABOUT 1500-2500 J/KG. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH DESPITE
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO A WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD A LINEAR
ORGANIZATION BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

COOL POST-FRONTAL TEMPS AND A MORE UNIFORM LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
SHOULD MINIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING. MOIST UPSLOPE PATTERN
FAVORS HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION AGAIN...LIKELY MOVING INTO THIRD
PERIOD OF THE FCST. MOS TEMPS LOOK FINE FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE BEST
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THE BRUNT OF ANY
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS CONTRIBUTING TO A COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THEIR OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND
BECOME COLD POOL DOMINATED WITHOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL JET. SHOULD SEE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AS ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO AND IS USHERED SOUTHEASTWARD IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
STRONGER NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF VEERING WIND FIELDS
UNDERGO...WITH BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVORING A GREATER
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE.

LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...BUT VEERING WIND FIELDS WILL HELP TO MIX A
DRYLINE EASTWARD AND SLIDE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SPELLING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  77  58  80  60 /  60  20  30  30  30
TULIA         59  78  58  81  61 /  60  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     60  78  59  82  62 /  80  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  82  64 /  80  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       63  79  61  83  64 /  80  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   65  79  62  84  65 /  40  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  79  62  83  65 /  70  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     63  81  62  85  63 /  60  20  10  10  20
SPUR          65  80  62  84  64 /  80  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     69  82  64  85  65 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

TXZ021>044-061645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1137 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST AND
MOST LIKELY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS... AND LATER INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS... DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COMPLEX
WOULD LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS... WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL. EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON... THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS BOTH THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS LESS LIKELY THAN THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...AND THE PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS IS RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH... HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS... AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS... PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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