Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS St. Louis, MO

890 
WWUS53 KLSX 171630
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

MOC139-219-171640-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-WARREN MO-
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WARREN AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3922 9072 3914 9071 3913 9069 3908 9069
      3906 9071 3900 9118 3910 9124 3932 9083
      3932 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 247DEG 57KT 3909 9100

$$

MOC113-163-171700-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

AT 1028 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVIS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELSBERRY...WHITESIDE...NEW HOPE...PAYNESVILLE AND ANNADA.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES CUIVRE RIVER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9072 3914 9071 3913 9069 3908 9069
      3906 9071 3900 9118 3910 9124 3932 9083
      3932 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 247DEG 57KT 3909 9100

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CVKING

046 
WWUS53 KLSX 171646
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1046 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

MOC113-163-171700-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-
1046 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

AT 1041 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVIS...AND 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELSBERRY...NEW HOPE AND ANNADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9072 3914 9071 3913 9069 3912 9069
      3908 9069 3906 9071 3904 9103 3913 9109
      3932 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 244DEG 58KT 3914 9090

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CVKING

389 
WWUS53 KLSX 171658
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1058 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

MOC113-163-171709-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-
1058 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 AM CST...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3922 9072 3914 9071 3913 9069 3912 9069
      3908 9069 3906 9071 3904 9103 3913 9109
      3932 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 244DEG 58KT 3923 9066

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

Latest round of storms have moved off to the east and southeast
early this morning. Could still see some scattered activity in warm
sector, but better chances later this morning and through the
afternoon hours as strong cold front slides through region. Strong
to severe storms still possible for portions of the forecast area,
mainly along and east of Mississippi River with best chance further
east over eastern IL and most of Indiana where there is a high risk
of severe weather. SPC has placed eastern portions of our forecast
area in a moderate risk for severe storms, so added severe mention
in the weather grids for this area. All of this is due to a surface
low currently over northeastern KS that will continue to deepen as
negatively tilted upper level trof helps to lift it northeast into
Great Lakes region. This combined with broad low level jet which
will continue to advect plenty of moisture into the area resulting
in moderate instability. As cap erodes by late morning, discrete
cells to develop over east central/southeastern MO as well as
southwestern IL which will eventually merge into a line and race
east. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, as
well as a few tornadoes. With the rapid movement of the front the
storms should move out of the forecast area by 00z Monday.

Another issue to deal with today will be the winds, as gradient
tightens ahead of system will see winds pickup by mid morning
sustained between 20 and 30 mph, gusting to near 40 mph at times.
Winds to persist behind the strong cold front as well before
diminishing early this evening. So have kept wind advisory for today
from 10 am to 6 pm.

One last above normal day as temperatures rise into the mid 60s to
mid 70s, then temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours as the front slides through.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

As system exits the area this evening, surface ridge to build in and
winds diminish. Colder air to filter in with lows dipping down into
the mid 30s to low 40s, about 20 to 30 degrees colder then
temperatures are this morning.

Surface ridge to remain over region through Monday night before
moving off to the east. In the meantime, highs on Monday will only
be in the 50s with lows Monday night in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Beyond that, extended models show southerly flow returning to the
area by mid week. Several weak shortwaves to slide through the area
for the rest of the forecast period with chances of rain Wednesday
through early Saturday. Extended models are indicating colder air
to filter in by Friday night with rain becoming mixed with snow
before ending.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

A low pressure system currently centered in southeast Nebraska and
trailing cold front will intensify and move east across the region
during the morning into the early afternoon. A strong southwesterly
low level jet is already present in advance of the cold front and
this will maintain conditions favorable for LLWS through around
15z, then the surface winds will increase significantly and become
strong and gusty while veering to southwest and then west with
passage of the front. Expecting broken mvfr cigs to develop this
morning with heating with scattered thunderstorms initiating
across eastern Missouri between 15-17z. There will be a narrow
window for thunderstorms at the terminals in the St. Louis metro
area and at KUIN in advance of the cold front. Surface winds will
diminish around sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:

A strong southwesterly low level jet is present and this will
maintain conditions favorable for LLWS through around 15z, then
the southerly surface winds will increase significantly and become
strong and gusty while veering to southwest during the later half
of the morning, and then to the west with a cold front passage
early this afternoon. Expecting broken mvfr cigs to develop this
morning with heating with thunderstorms possible between 17-19z.
Surface winds will diminish around sunset.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette
     IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
     Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
424 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
424 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS
THREAT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY.

BYRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
859 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-171800-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM...
CHESTER...QUINCY...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...HANNIBAL...
BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES...
UNION...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON
859 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...WILL THREATEN
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...

THIS MORNINGS WEATHER DATA INDICATES THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THREATENING THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF WIND CONDITIONS
AND THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR THAT CURRENTLY BLANKETS
THE REGION.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...AND DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SOME OF
THESE TORNADOES COULD REMAIN ON THE GROUND FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
RAPID...AND ONCE THE STORMS FORM THEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...LIKELY OVER 50 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE
TO THIS RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT CONDITIONS MAY BE CHANGING
RAPIDLY IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME....SO BE CERTAIN TO CAREFULLY
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 39.80N  91.52W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     HAIL             PALOMA                  40.02N  91.20W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER