Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2013

With the passing of a weak pre-frontal trough across central
Kentucky earlier this afternoon, thunderstorms developed by early
afternoon across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland Regions. This
have almost all moved east, with just a few sprinkles or light
showers left northeast of Lexington.

Current, surface analysis shows our greatest instability lies west
of Interstate 65, especially west of Bowling Green, where dewpoints
still lie around 70.

For the rest of this evening, expect dry conditions along and east
of Interstate 65, with just some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
along a line from Owensboro to near Bowling Green. By late evening,
towards midnight, feel that convective coverage will increase
across our western counties as a trough approaches. Eventually,
shower and isolated thunderstorms will overspread central Kentucky
through the early morning hours, though in a weakening phase.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Now - Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2013

Rather active short term period expected as an upper-level trough
approaches the region.  The trough is located across Iowa/Missouri
this afternoon, which has allowed southwest flow to ramp up across
the Ohio Valley.  Copious amounts of moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.9 inches)
continue to stream into the Ohio Valley via this southwest flow,
allowing isentropic ascent to set off showers and thunderstorms
mainly across southern/eastern KY.  As expected, these storms have
remained below severe limits due to marginal lapse rates aloft, no
focused surface convergence, and competing updrafts in a relatively
weakly sheared environment.  Therefore, expect brief gusty winds,
lightning, and heavy rainfall to continue to be the main threats for
the next hour or two as these storms push northeast.

There will likely be a general lull in the activity early this
evening as the main moisture transport pushes off to the northeast,
and the pre-frontal surface trough remains across eastern MO/western
KY.  Convection has developed ahead of the pre-frontal trough this
afternoon, but it too has remained below severe limits thus far due
to a general lack of instability.  This activity will push into the
LMK CWA late this evening into the overnight hours, continuing to
weaken as daytime instability wanes.  Therefore, expect nothing more
than some general showers and thunderstorms late this evening
through the overnight hours as this pre-frontal trough encounters
the moist airmass now in place across the Ohio Valley.  Some
questions remain on the coverage of the activity tonight, and am a
bit concerned pops are too high as some of the high-res guidance
shows this activity quickly falling apart as it enters central
KY/southern IN.  With the activity throughout the day today
convectively overturning the atmosphere and the position of the
pre-frontal trough lagging the main upper-forcing of the vertically
stacked low, am a bit concerned coverage may not be all that
widespread.  Thus, will keep pops tonight in the 60s and allow the
evening shift to evaluate if they will need to be brought higher.

Overnight convection will largely have an impact on the sensible
weather Monday afternoon.  The upper-level low center will slide
through the Ohio Valley, allowing a cold pocket aloft to overspread
the region.  The 09/12Z NAM depicts surface dewpoints about 3-5
degrees higher than the operational 09/12Z GFS, which develops much
more afternoon instability.  With flow becoming WSW tomorrow and the
pre-frontal trough sweeping out some low-level moisture, find it
hard to believe the upper 60s to 70s dewpoints given by the NAM.
Thus, will forecast dewpoints in the low to mid 60s which supports
MLCAPEs generally less than 1000 J/kg.  Additionally, some cloud
cover from the overnight convection could linger, limiting surface
heating through the early afternoon hours.  Nonetheless, southern KY
will be in the stronger flow aloft beneath the mid-level jet core,
which will support 0-6km shear of 40-50 knots.  If sunshine is
realized through the morning/early afternoon and dewpoints are
higher than expected, then a severe threat could materialize across
mainly southern KY.  However, given the above caveats and no evident
convergent surface boundary, think this threat is highly
conditional.  The main threats if a strong/severe storm could
materialize would be strong winds and marginally severe hail.

Otherwise, the showers and thunderstorms will come to an end by
Monday night.  Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.  Highs
tomorrow will climb into the mid and upper 70s, with lows falling
back into the lower 60s by Monday night.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday - Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2013

Tuesday through Thursday Night...

Latest model data continues to show fairly good agreement and
continuity during this portion of the forecast period.  Upper trough
axis will be exiting the region on Tuesday with mid-level ridging
and warming developing.  This upper level ridging and warming should
keep things relatively capped on Tuesday and into Wednesday so
precipitation chances look minimal based on the latest datasets.
Temperature trends in the models have gone a little warmer with the
latest guidance.  Highs Tuesday will likely top out in the 83-88
degree range with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
Highs for Tuesday look even warmer with afternoon readings topping
out 88 to 91 degrees.

By late Wednesday and early Thursday, the models continue to hint at
a possible MCS tracking across our region.  While the synoptic
scale solutions from the models are in good agreement, there
continues to be some timing issues with the vorticity maximum riding
around the top of the mid-level ridge to our west.  Despite the
timing differences, the probability of precipitation for Wed
Night/Thursday looks a little more likely, so have gone ahead and
bumped up PoPs a little more for that time frame...especially across
the northern half of the CWA.  Should an MCS develop and track
through the region, the main risk would be the potential for wind
damage.  Lows Wednesday night will be warm with lower 70s expected.
Highs Thursday will probably be a little cooler than Wednesday
afternoon with reading in the 81-86 degree range.  Lows Thursday
night should cool into the lower-middle 60s.

Friday through Sunday...

Upper level ridging is expected to build back across the region as
we head into Friday and later into the weekend.  Latest data
continues to show the ridge axis pushing a little further eastward
and orienting itself along or just west of the Mississippi river.
In this orientation, Friday and Saturday looks to be warm and dry
with highs in the mid-upper 80s on Friday and in the upper 80s to
around 90 by Saturday.  By Sunday, the guidance points to another
wave riding around the periphery of the ridge bringing another round
of storms to the region.  Timing differences within the guidance
preclude going any higher than a slight chance for Sunday which is
close to climatology for this time of the year.  Highs Sunday should
warm into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2013

Vigorous upper low centered over Iowa will push into southern
Illinois by daybreak Monday. A pre-frontal line of convergence is
causing some storms west of BWG, that should weaken some before
making it there sometime between 2-4Z. 3km WRF indicates an
increasing line of showers with embedded storms moving into the
other sites late this evening/after midnight, followed by a period
of MVFR cigs. KBWG may go lower, depending on how much rain they get
with this line. Afterward, have less confidence in rain chances, but
with the upper low overhead and enough low-level moisture, could see
additional development at any time. Will fine-tune the forecast as
it gets closer in time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........JSD
Short Term.......KJD
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........RJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
821 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ024-027-100150-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-GRAYSON KY-
821 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF HARDINSBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MCQUADY AND MCDANIELS...
  KIRK AND CAVE SPRING...
  WESTVIEW AND SE REE...
  KINGSWOOD AND HARNED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 8662 3784 8637 3767 8628 3752 8652
      3762 8664 3765 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 229DEG 21KT 3765 8651

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ061-070-071-100205-
BUTLER KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  CHANDLERS CHAPEL AND HOMER...
  GASPER...
  COSTELOW AND ANDERSON...
  DAVIS CROSSROADS AND TURNERTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 8676 3707 8652 3679 8679 3688 8697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 218DEG 20KT 3693 8684

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
857 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ024-027-028-100225-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
857 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 50
MPH WINDS...

AT 854 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  HARDIN SPRINGS AND HUDSON...
  PIERCE MILL AND CONSTANTINE...
  DYER...
  VERTREES AND HOWE VALLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8617 3780 8615 3780 8612 3767 8595
      3742 8631 3756 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 228DEG 28KT 3758 8631

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
909 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ070>072-100240-
LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
909 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 906 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  DENNIS...
  CHANDLERS CHAPEL...
  AUBURN...
  GASPER...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND
5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8655 3685 8644 3672 8690 3688 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 247DEG 22KT 3684 8683

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ025-028-100255-
HARDIN KY-MEADE KY-
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
45 MPH WINDS...

AT 1023 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
BRANDENBURG TO 12 MILES WEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PERRYVILLE...
  HANSBROUGH AND STEPHENSBURG...
  VINE GROVE AND CECILIA...
  GRAHAMTON AND SAINT JOHN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 8615 3780 8616 3801 8597 3788 8587
      3771 8586 3756 8611 3757 8612 3756 8612
      3757 8613 3765 8614 3776 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 224DEG 25KT 3780 8613 3771 8607
          3760 8608

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

KYZ027-061-062-070-071-100325-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
940 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WARREN...BUTLER...AND INTO WESTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MORGANTOWN TO 11 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  DELAFIELD...
  CRESTMOOR...
  BOWLING GREEN...
  HORSEMILL AND JETSON...
  VINEYARD AND LEE...
  BIG REEDY AND DECKER...
  SUNFISH AND NASH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8678 3738 8664 3740 8661 3750 8661
      3745 8616 3701 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 238DEG 27KT 3719 8655 3688 8666

JSD