Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Louisville, KY

627 
WWUS53 KLMK 101953
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

KYC003-102010-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130610T2010Z/
ALLEN KY-
253 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALLEN COUNTY UNTIL 310 PM CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST SPRINGS...AMOS AND MOUNT ZION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8629 3670 8628 3669 8597 3665 8596
      3663 8597 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 274DEG 25KT 3666 8620

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$
JDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon June 10 2013

Convection is starting to blossom across the region as convective
temperatures have been reached.  Some strong to severe storms will
be possible generally along a line from Logan to Larue To Madison
line and points south.  Have updated PoPs and Wx across the south to
address the increase in covective coverage.  More details will be
available in the new short term update which will be available in
about 15 minutes.

Update issued at 1105 AM EDT Mon June 10 2013

Batch of convection associated with the upper trough is pushing into
our western areas right now.  This activity should reach the I-65
corridor by Noon EDT and then slide off toward our eastern sections
during the afternoon hours.  Visible satellite imagery shows skies
clearing out ahead of this line of storms.  Mesoanalysis indicates
that as these clouds have broken up and insolation has occurred,
instability has increased a bit with MLCAPE values on the order of
800-1000 J/Kg.  Mid-level lapse rates are still rather poor with
values of +6 C/km mainly across southwestern Indiana.  This matches
up well with the better development seen between Paoli and
Bloomington.

Over the next several hours, we expect more insolation to occur with
instability picking up correspondingly.  Combination of instability
and shear are displaced slightly, but the main risk of severe
weather looks to be limited to mainly southern KY and TN this
afternoon...though I can't rule out a strong storm or two across
central and east-central KY this afternoon.  With the storms pushing
in from the west, have gone ahead and bumped PoPs up to likely in
the west for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
hours.  Further east, have kept things a bit drier into the
afternoon, but then allow PoPs to ramp up quickly in the 1-2 PM time
frame.  Afternoon highs still look to be in the upper 70s to around
80 in some locales.

Update issued at 910 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2013

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region this
morning.  First batch of convection that affected the region during
the overnight hours continues to eastward and is generally east
of the I-75 corridor.  Secondary batch of convection is now swinging
through southern IL/SW IN/WKY and will affect our western and
central sections within the next couple of hours.  None of the
activity is particularly strong, but brief heavy rains and some
cloud to ground lightning will be possible as these storms move
through.  Still think that best forcing and instability will be
located to our south across middle Tennessee this afternoon with
some of the activity possibly affecting southern Kentucky.  Some
strong storms will be possible, but again, think main threats will
be just off to our south.  Clouds and precipitation will hold
temperatures back a bit today with highs in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2013

A band of showers over the LMK CWA early this morning will slowly
edge eastward and should be out of the area by mid morning.
Following its exit, we'll have a few hours of dry weather and partly
sunny skies.

An upper low over Illinois early this morning will move east to Ohio
today with its attendant upper trof moving overhead during the
afternoon hours.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
as a result.  Wet bulb zero heights suggest that some of the
stronger storms would be capable of hail, with the best chances for
significant hail over the Tennessee Valley where shear will be
greater.

We should get enough sunshine after this morning's showers to
allow afternoon highs to peak in the upper 70s to around 80.

The afternoon showers and storms will exit to the east early this
evening, with skies becoming mostly clear overnight.  Patchy fog
will likely develop after midnight, especially across the Blue Grass
and southern Kentucky. Low temperatures will be in the lower and
middle 60s.

Will keep Tuesday dry for now with weak surface ridging in place.
Precipitable water values will be quite low in the morning, however
they do increase dramatically in the afternoon just off to our west,
ahead of an approaching warm front, so that will have to be
watched.  Will peg highs in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday - Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2013

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an expansive upper ridge across the central United States,
placing the Ohio Valley in northwest flow aloft through the bulk of
the long term period.  This will allow for two systems of note to
ride along the periphery of the ridge through the Ohio Valley, one
coming midweek and another towards the end of the weekend.

Wednesday will be characterized by very warm temperatures, as 850mb
readings climb to 20-24C.  This should allow surface temperatures to
reach into the 90s, perhaps pushing the mid 90s in spots.  However,
recent wet conditions and rather green conditions may help to
slightly offset an otherwise good setup for very warm conditions
across the Ohio Valley.  Guidance continues to suggest the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm developing across the northern
Bluegrass and higher terrain of eastern KY.  Am not completely sold
on the potential due to a general lack of large scale forcing.
However, soundings do not show much in the way of a cap and if
low-level moisture does not mix out too much, then a stray
thunderstorm could be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Better chances for thunderstorms approach Wednesday night into
Thursday, as a strong shortwave trough rides the periphery of the
strong upper ridge and slides into the Ohio Valley.  Guidance is in
pretty good agreement on the development of an MCS Wednesday
afternoon/evening across IL/IN, quickly dropping southeast into the
Ohio Valley through the overnight hours.  Have favored the quicker
GFS solution with timing, as plenty of DCAPE will lead to strong
cold pool development and a progressive system.  With 0-3km shear of
30 knots, convection should remain tied to its cold pool and could
offer some severe potential, with the main threat being damaging
winds.

Otherwise, things will quickly dry out by late Thursday afternoon as
the shortwave pushes east.  Behind it, temperatures will cool into
the mid 80s through the rest of the week.  After a dry start to the
weekend, another system will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley.  Despite some subtle timing
differences, decent agreement and ensemble support suggest that
40-50 POPs are warranted Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2013

Upper low over Illinois will continue to move eastward across the
region this afternoon and evening.  A wave of showers will advance
eastward ahead of the above mentioned feature.  Convective activity
has diminished in intensity as it has headed east.  Currently think
that showers will be dominant feature across the terminals this
afternoon with only a very slight chance of thunder.  At most risk
for thunder would most likely be KLEX.  Shower activity should end
by 10/22-23Z with clearing skies and diminishing winds.  Overnight,
weather is expected to be quiet with patchy fog developing.  With
KBWG picking up rainfall early this afternoon, locally dense
terminal fog could be a problem after 11/08Z through 11/12Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......13
Long Term........KJD
Aviation.........MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1058 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111500-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1058 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 /958 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO THE KENTUCKY BLUE GRASS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13/BJS/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

KYZ070-072-101855-
LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-
126 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 45 MPH WINDS IN SOUTHWEST LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  ADAIRVILLE...
  SCHOCHOH AND CORINTH...
  MIDDLETON AND PRICES MILL...
  NEOSHEO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8706 3686 8705 3688 8661 3683 8658
      3665 8658 3664 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 276DEG 29KT 3675 8690

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
158 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

KYZ078-081-082-101930-
CLINTON KY-CUMBERLAND KY-RUSSELL KY-
158 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 45 MPH WINDS...

AT 158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURKESVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ALBANY...
  WAGO AND IDA...
  UPCHURCH AND SNOW...
  CARTWRIGHT AND NORA...
  ALPHA AND ROLAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...RIVER...OR SWIMMING POOL...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8536 3684 8535 3689 8503 3686 8506
      3683 8506 3680 8501 3676 8500 3670 8502
      3668 8500 3663 8500 3663 8498 3661 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 272DEG 28KT 3674 8523

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             2 W FRANKLIN            36.73N  86.61W
06/10/2013  M1.75 INCH       SIMPSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300225

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             1 E FRANKLIN            36.73N  86.56W
06/10/2013  M2.00 INCH       SIMPSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300226

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             3 E FRANKLIN            36.73N  86.52W
06/10/2013  M0.50 INCH       SIMPSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300227

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TORNADO          5 SW FRANKLIN           36.68N  86.64W
06/10/2013                   SIMPSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO. ONE HOUSE DESTROYED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300228

SZAPPANOS